Putin’s ‘staged atrocity’ plan to justify invasion
US accuses Russia of planning fake attack to blame on Ukrainian forces, including corpses, actors posing as mourners, as pretext for invasion.
The US has accused Russia of planning to stage an atrocity that it can blame on Ukrainian forces as the pretext for an invasion.
The “false flag” event could include the use of corpses, supposedly of Russians or Russian-speaking victims in Ukraine, as well as actors posing as mourners, the Pentagon said on Thursday, with the incident then used as propaganda to justify sending the 100,000 Russian troops massed at the border over into Ukraine.
American officials warned last month that Russian operatives were moving into border regions of Ukraine to prepare for sabotage missions. Intelligence released by Britain also suggested that the Kremlin had prepared plans to take over the government in Kiev, using a pro-Russian stooge. Those named as plotters have denied the claim.
John Kirby, the Pentagon spokesman, said on Thursday: “We do have information that the Russians are likely to want to fabricate a pretext for an invasion, which is right out of their playbook. One option is a fake attack by Ukrainian military or intelligence forces against Russian sovereign territory or against Russian-speaking people.
“As part of this fake attack, we believe that Russia would produce a very graphic propaganda video which would include corpses and actors that would be depicting mourners and images of destroyed locations as well as military equipment at the hands of Ukraine and the West, even to the point where some of this equipment would be made to look like it was western-supplied Ukrainian equipment.
“This is just one example we can talk about today … we’ve seen this kind of activity in the past and we believe it is important when we can to call it out.”
Asked if the plan would have been approved at the highest level of the Kremlin, including President Vladimir Putin, Mr Kirby said: “Our experience is that very little of this nature is not approved at the highest levels of the Russian government.”
The false flag event, said to be in the advanced stages of preparation, would involve spreading images of an atrocity to drum up outrage against the Ukrainian government. It was unclear if the casualties would be real or faked.
Some estimates put the number of Russian troops sent by Mr Putin to the Ukrainian border as high as 130,000. The Russian president will meet President Xi Jinping in Beijing on Friday for the opening of the Winter Olympics.
Moscow and Beijing are forging an ever closer alliance over their expansionist ambitions and rejection of western standards of democracy. On the eve of his visit Mr Putin wrote an article for China’s state news agency saying that the two nations could bypass western sanctions by trading in each other’s currencies.
He wrote: “During the upcoming visit, President Xi Jinping and I will thoroughly discuss key issues on the bilateral, regional, and global agendas. We are consistently expanding settlements in national currencies and creating mechanisms to offset the negative impact of unilateral sanctions.”
Mr Putin will be in the National Stadium in Beijing for the official opening of the Games by Xi but the official delegations of the US, Britain, Germany, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Japan will not, after imposing a diplomatic boycott in protest at the Chinese government’s human rights violations.
Mr Putin and Mr Xi will sign a series of deals in Beijing and discuss a new gas pipeline to China that could provide Russia with an economic lifeline in the event of western sanctions over an invasion of Ukraine. The Kremlin announced that China will formally pledge its support for Russia in its dispute with the West over NATO expansion.
President Joe Biden has offered Russia the chance to inspect two NATO bases, in Romania and Poland that Putin claims could be equipped with Tomahawk cruise missiles aimed at Russia. The offer was contained in a leaked US letter rejecting Mr Putin’s demand that NATO rule out the possibility of ever granting membership to Ukraine, and insisting that NATO be allowed to inspect two facilities in Russia.
Mr Biden’s announcement on Wednesday that he would send 3000 US troops to eastern Europe was ridiculed by General Sir Richard Shirreff, NATO’s former deputy supreme allied commander in Europe.
“I mean, 3000? Frankly, you can imagine Mr Putin sitting in the Kremlin and raising an eyebrow and saying, ‘that’s really going to frighten me’,” the retired British army officer told Times Radio.
Calling on the West to show “real resolve”, Sir Richard said that “significant ready forces” should be sent to the Baltic states and to northeastern Romania, to send a message that “absolutely no way is any Russian boot going to step across into NATO territory” and that “if it does, we’re prepared to fight to defend ourselves”.
He added: “This is a very, very dangerous situation, arguably the most dangerous situation Europe has faced since the Cuban missile crisis (in 1962).”
Vitali Klitschko, the mayor of Kiev and former world boxing champion, has said his city is frightened by the prospect of a “catastrophic” Russian invasion, despite other Ukrainian leaders accusing the US of alarmism for talking up the risk of war.
Reiterated to Mayor Klychko that we stand with the people of Kyiv against the threat of aggression. Russia’s manufactured crisis has only bolstered the support of Ukraine’s partners and friends, increased the resolve of its defenders, and encouraged unity. pic.twitter.com/0J3HMbkbk0
— U.S. Embassy Kyiv (@USEmbassyKyiv) January 25, 2022
Last week President Volodymyr Zelensky criticised the Americans and some of their allies for suggesting that armed conflict was “imminent” and partially evacuating their embassies in Ukraine.
“This means panic on the market, panic in the financial sector,” Mr Zelensky, 44, said.
Mr Klitschko, 50, said he found Mr Zelensky’s relaxed attitude “very strange”. Kiev has mobilised most of the men in the city with military experience and has begun establishing bomb shelters.
“There is no one here, not a family, who aren’t talking about the possibility of war,” Mr Klitschko told Die Zeit, a German newspaper. “Everyone’s afraid. It would be a catastrophe if something like this happens. We know Putin’s dream, he hasn’t made any secret of it. He wants to rebuild the Soviet empire.”
The Times
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