QUAD a security anchor in a dangerous strategic time

Australia’s strategic outlook has not been as challenging since World War II, which makes our international alliances with like-minded democracies more important than at any time for 80 years. The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue in Melbourne in mid-February will be attended by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, the most senior Biden administration figure to visit Australia so far. As foreign editor Greg Sheridan reveals on Monday, the gathering underlines the importance the US and the governments of Japan and India place on their relationships with Australia. The dialogue, to be hosted by Foreign Minister Marise Payne, will include Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi and Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar. The four ministers will have a separate meeting with Scott Morrison. While the Quad’s main priority is the maintenance of peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region, any invasion of Ukraine by Russia, which has amassed 127,000 troops and medical teams near the Ukrainian border, will be on the two-day agenda in Melbourne.

A weekend call by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to Mr Blinken left no doubt about the extent to which Beijing is actively supporting Moscow in the Ukraine crisis. Mr Wang expressed strong support for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s demand that NATO cease its expansion into Eastern Europe. That declaration of Chinese backing for Russia was accompanied by simultaneous commentary in the CCP’s Global Times mouthpiece, headlined, “If US provokes China or Russia, the other won’t be indifferent”. The article claimed the US was “strategically squeezing China and Russia at the same time. It’s arrogant. It is pushing China and Russia together to strike back’’. China and Russia shared a comprehensive strategic partnership of co-ordination, the commentary added. They were “not allies, but better than allies’’. If the US provoked either China or Russia, “the other one will not be indifferent’’.

Amid the difficulties of Covid (Mr Jaishankar has tested positive but hopes to have recovered and record a negative test result, which would enable him to travel to Australia), the timing of the meeting shows the importance all four nations place on the Quad and on the strategic challenge posed by China. Senator Payne and Mr Blinken will brief their Japanese and Indian counterparts on the evolving AUKUS agreement involving the US, Australia and Britain, and the group’s ambition to see Australia acquire nuclear-powered submarines. Both Japan and India support AUKUS. Tokyo, in particular, helped allay early suspicions of the pact among Southeast Asian nations, which was intensified by Chinese and Russian disinformation.

The Quad, while not a military alliance, exists not only for dialogue but for action, Sheridan reports. It works to build resilience across the Indo-Pacific region, provide strategic solidarity and provide the region with alternatives to Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative. Its project to manufacture and distribute Covid vaccines is proceeding, including helping the poorest nations store and administer the vaccines properly. Japan and India, at the leading edge globally of technology and IT, want technology co-operation to be central to the Quad’s operations. It is a vital sphere, given the importance of cyber security, critical technology, space, and countering disinformation campaigns.

In Inquirer on Saturday, Paul Monk, a former senior intelligence analyst, argued that liberal democracies had been slow to wake up to how serious a challenge Russia and China posed. Ukraine has now become a test case of the willingness and capacity of NATO and the EU to stand up when it counts. Moscow and Beijing behave in similar ways and are talking closely about how to break the US-led world order, Monk argued. “There is growing speculation that they may co-ordinate their moves and invade Ukraine and Taiwan simultaneously, catching the overstretched and war-weary US and its wavering allies in disarray. That’s how troubling the geopolitical situation has become, 30 years after the end of the Cold War.’’ Every generation, it seems, must learn that the price of peace is vigilance and collective security. The Quad is constructive and practical, with the ability to make its member states and our region safer. Its upcoming meeting is a vital diplomatic win for the Morrison government.