Putin ‘prepared to invade in the new year’

As satellite images show Russian troops massing on border, US intelligence warns of potential early 2022 invasion.

This satellite image released by Maxar Technologies on December 5, 2021, reportedly shows Russian military deployment in the Novo Ozernoye region of Crimea on October 18, 2021. Picture: Satellite image ©2021 Maxar Technologies / AFP

Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin will hold crisis talks on Tuesday as Russia masses 175,000 troops on the border with Ukraine and US intelligence warns of a potential invasion early next year.

American intelligence officers believe Moscow has drawn up plans for a military offensive on several fronts as the Kremlin continues to move troops, artillery and armour up to the borders of eastern Europe. The crisis has renewed fears that the standoff over Ukraine, the former Soviet republic that wants to join NATO, could spill into an invasion and war on European soil.

Images from satellites show Russian forces massing on the border, with analysts predicting that the total troop build up could reach 175,000. Russian reservists have been mobilised to join 50 battlefield groups, along with tanks and artillery. Moscow has dismissed the concerns, claiming that it is conducting routine military exercises, and accused Ukraine and NATO of aggression.

This satellite image released by Maxar Technologies on December 5, 2021, reportedly shows Russian ground forces equipment near Yelnya, Russia, on November 9, 2021. Picture: Satellite image ©2021 Maxar Technologies/AFP

However, the Donbas region has experienced some of the fiercest fighting with Russia since the dispute began about seven year ago.

Washington is threatening tough sanctions that could cut off Russia from international financial systems.

“President Biden will underscore US concerns with Russian military activities on the border with Ukraine and reaffirm the United States’ support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine,” the White House said.

Biden said on Friday that the US had prepared the “most comprehensive and meaningful set of initiatives to make it very, very difficult for Mr Putin”. Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, said that the US could launch “high-impact economic measures that we’ve refrained from taking in the past”.

This satellite image released by Maxar Technologies on December 5, 2021, reportedly shows Russian ground forces equipment at the Pogonovo training area in Russia, on November 26, 2021. Picture: Satellite image ©2021 Maxar Technologies/AFP

Putin is certain to reaffirm Russia’s opposition to Ukraine joining NATO, but NATO has said that Moscow has no say in plans for possible expansion. The US believes Russia has 70,000 troops on the border but Ukraine puts that figure at 94,000. Both assessments believe the Russian strategy allows for swift reinforcements to double the number. Ukraine has said that Moscow could invade next month. US officials said the groundwork for an invasion was backed by a renewed propaganda campaign from Russian-influenced media groups in Ukraine, blaming Kiev for any potential military escalation.

Maria Zakharova, of the Russian foreign ministry, said: “Russian armed forces on Russian territory is the legal right of a sovereign state. The US media should be concerned by the aggressive activity of the US, not Russia.”

Ukrainian and NATO sources fear that Moscow could use migrants to seize the Suwałki Corridor – a 60-mile sliver of territory between Poland and Lithuania. The corridor is all that connects Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia with the rest of the European Union and NATO’s European territories.

Under such a scenario, Russia could push migrants into the corridor and stoke unrest. Russian troops could then sweep in and deploy military patrols along the corridor under the guise of a humanitarian crisis. Such a move would enable Russia to link up its forces in Kaliningrad with Belarus.

Russia's President Vladimir Putin. Picture: Maxim Blinov/Sputnik/AFP

A diplomat from eastern Europe told The Times: “Refugees are a very sophisticated weapon if they are weaponised.”

Last month Russia sent troops to the Belarus border with Poland, where hundreds of migrants were trying to cross to the EU. The Kremlin said the sudden deployment was for snap drills. A Ukrainian source said the migrant crisis on the Belarus border was part of a plan to see if NATO would trigger Article 5 on collective defence of the alliance. They said it was a “rehearsal” for using migrants to seize more territory.

“The migration crisis and massing troops in Belarus is a strategy to distract NATO while attacking Ukraine. All these things are being done by Russia now – it is all about Ukraine.”

ANALYSIS: MICHAEL EVANS

Two aspects of the Russian troop build-up along the Ukrainian border have raised specific alarm about President Putin’s suspected plans for an invasion.

These are the deployment of Russia’s combat-ready battalion tactical groups (BTGs), Moscow’s “shock troops”, and the recent arrival of all the back-up needed for a medium-term military intervention, including medical field hospital units. Estimates of the number of troops vary from 94,000 claimed by Kiev to 70,000 by the Pentagon but the Kremlin could increase that quickly to 175,000.

This assessment is partly based on Russia’s conventional military warfare doctrine, which is heavily focused on the use of BTGs, designed to be ready at 60 minutes’ notice.

Five years ago there were 66 BTGs; today there are 168 and 50 are deployed on the border with Ukraine.

It seems that Putin might have three aims, outside of an actual invasion: to rehearse Russia’s ability and capacity to cross the border and hold large swathes of territory in Ukraine at short notice; to warn off NATO from ever allowing Ukraine to become a member of the western alliance; and to test President Biden’s nerve.

The Times