Putin troop buildup near Ukraine raises concerns of potential 2022 invasion, US officials say

The US says Russian President Vladimir Putin is amassing troops expected to total 175,000 near the border with Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin during a meeting at the Kremlin on Thursday, on coal mining. Picture: Sputnik / AFP

Russian President Vladimir Putin is amassing a force expected to total 175,000 troops near Russia’s border with Ukraine, giving him the capability for a potential invasion of his neighbour by early 2022, Biden administration officials say.

The officials, citing new intelligence reports that include images from spy satellites, said the Russian military buildup differs markedly from an earlier massing of troops in the spring. When completed, they said, it will be twice the size of that previous buildup. In addition, Russia has embarked on a rapid mobilisation of reservists.

The officials cautioned that US intelligence agencies don’t know whether Russia will in fact invade Ukraine, whose ties with the West have been opposed by Mr Putin. The intelligence reporting, while containing new details, echoes concerns raised earlier by the US and its allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation.

The Russian military moves in recent weeks have sharply heightened tensions with the US, which has warned of serious reprisals, and with the NATO alliance.

“If Russia decides to pursue confrontation, there will be serious consequences,” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Thursday before meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Stockholm.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, left, gestures during his meeting with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov on the sidelines of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe meeting in Stockholm on Thursday. Picture: Pool / AFP

The Washington Post earlier reported the new US assessment, publishing what it said was an unclassified intelligence report that included images of troop concentrations in four locations on Russian soil along its Ukraine border.

The Wall Street Journal hasn’t seen the unclassified document, but US officials confirmed its authenticity.

“The Russian plans call for a military offensive against Ukraine as soon as early 2022 with a scale of forces twice what we saw this past spring during Russia’s rapid military buildup near Ukraine’s borders,” one of the administration officials said.

“The plans involve extensive movement of 100 battalion tactical groups with an estimated 175,000 personnel, along with armour, artillery, and equipment.” “We estimate half of these units are already near Ukraine’s border,” the official said.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky holds a press conference in Kiev in November, saying Ukraine is ready to take on Russia if Moscow decides to move troops across the border, amid growing Western concern over a new Russian military buildup. Picture: Ukrainian presidential press service / AFP

Russia has denied that it is preparing to invade its smaller neighbour and has accused NATO of providing Ukraine with sophisticated weaponry, fomenting tension and destabilising the region. Russian officials have said they don’t want any conflicts and Moscow wants a balance of interests in the region.

US officials have been attempting to approach Russia’s military deployments diplomatically. The White House on Friday said it was working with the Russians to schedule a call between President Joe Biden and Mr Putin but no phone call had yet been scheduled.

On Friday, Mr Biden said his administration is putting together a plan “to make it very, very difficult for Mr Putin to go ahead and do what people are worried he may do.”

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Army General Mark Milley on Thursday said the activity near Ukraine had triggered “a lot of concern”.

“There’s significant national security interests of the United States and of NATO member states at stake here if there was an overt act of aggressive action militarily by the Russians into a nation state that has been independent since 1991,” he told reporters on a military jet on Friday.

General Milley didn’t elaborate on options open to the US if Russia did take action.

A Ukrainian serviceman on the frontline with Russian-backed separatists near the small city of Marinka, in the Donetsk region, earlier this year. Picture: Aleksey Filippov / AFP

Mr Blinken suggested earlier this week that if Russia invades Ukraine, the US would deploy harsh economic sanctions of a type it has held back from using so far. Mr Blinken didn’t provide specifics.

The White House is conducting a review of US options to respond to Russia, and they range from more military support for Ukraine to stepped-up diplomacy to de-escalate the conflict, according to US officials.

In 2014, Russian-backed forces seized parts of eastern Ukraine, and Moscow annexed the Crimean peninsula.

This picture released by the Russian Defence Ministry last April shows an explosion as Russian forces take part in a military drill near Ukraine. Picture via AFP

The administration official said information the US has acquired indicates Russia is already conducting information operations to support a potential invasion.

Russian officials are proposing information operations “to emphasise the narrative that Ukrainian leaders had been installed by the West, harboured a hatred for the ‘Russian world,’ and were acting against the interests of the Ukrainian people”, the official said.

Gordon Lubold contributed to this article.

The Wall Street Journal