The Fordow imperative for Trump and Israel

If Donald Trump won’t help on Fordow, Israel will need more time to achieve its strategic goals.

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Israel continues to bomb key Iranian military sites, while Iran is firing missiles at Israeli cities. Central to an Israeli strategic victory will be whether it can destroy Iran’s main nuclear-weapons sites, and that effort deserves American help.

Israel’s bombing is first and foremost an anti-nuclear-proliferation campaign. Other goals include attriting Tehran’s ballistic-missile capacity, which the regime had been escalating to be able to produce hundreds a month. Israel has also begun to target Iran’s domestic oil and gas supply chains after Iran’s attacks on Israeli civilian populations.

But the immediate strategic goal is to destroy, or at least significantly degrade, Iran’s ability to produce a nuclear bomb. As we write this, that goal hasn’t been achieved. Iran’s largest uranium enrichment site at Natanz has been damaged as has the Isfahan facility. Israel has also killed as many as 14 of Iran’s top scientists working on the program.

This satellite image shows the Isfahan nuclear enrichment facility in central Iran on June 14, after it was hit by Israeli strikes. Picture: Maxar Technologies/AFP

Isfahan is where Iran converts raw uranium into uranium feed gases for enrichment. “The strike dismantled a facility for producing metallic uranium, infrastructure for reconverting enriched uranium, laboratories, and additional infrastructure,” the Israel Defense Forces said on Friday. The International Atomic Energy Agency, which is in touch with Iranian officials, confirms that Isfahan has sustained considerable damage.

The damage to Natanz, where enrichment capacity is buried underground, is less clear. Veteran nuclear monitor David Albright finds that Israeli strikes destroyed Iran’s Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant and the electrical infrastructure powering the site. This could knock its centrifuges out of commission.

Meanwhile, the enrichment site at Fordow, which is buried deep under a mountain, has barely been touched. The enriched uranium at Fordow is believed to be enough to produce several bombs. The danger is that if Iran retains the nuclear fuel it has already highly enriched, as well as its centrifuges to enrich more, the country could sprint to make a bomb.

This satellite shows an overview of the Fordo (Fordow) uranium enrichment facility, south of the capital Tehran. Picture: Maxar Technologies/AFP

This is where the US comes in. Israel lacks the deep penetrating bombs, and the heavy bombers to deliver them, that could do more damage to buried sites. The US has both, and Israel would like US help in taking out those nuclear sites.

President Trump seems reluctant to do so for reasons he and the Administration haven’t explained. Mr Trump endorsed the initial attacks, though he continues to suggest that the bombing could increase the chances of a negotiated deal to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program. So far Iran has shown no such interest, and it chose not to attend scheduled talks in Oman on Sunday.

Mr Trump posted on social media Sunday that “we can easily get a deal done” to end the war. But that prospect will be more likely if he helps Israel finish the military job. Israel is signalling that its campaign can take either a few days or many weeks. If Mr Trump won’t help on Fordow, Israel will need more time to achieve its strategic goals. A neutral US means a longer war.

The President is no doubt concerned that Iran or its proxies will hit US troops or bases in the Middle East. But it isn’t clear how much damage Iran could do given how much Israel has degraded Iran’s forces. Iran also knows that attacking US forces would mean a far more devastating US response. The US could destroy Iran’s navy, oil and gas production facilities and export terminals.

Trump posted on social media Sunday that ‘we can easily get a deal done’ to end the war. Picture: Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP Photo

Mr Trump’s other concern may be criticism from his MAGA isolationist wing. The podcast Metternichs are already attacking Mr Trump merely for approving of the Israeli strikes. Asked about those critics on Saturday, the President gave an excellent answer.

“Well, considering that I’m the one that developed ‘America First,’ and considering that the term wasn’t used until I came along, I think I’m the one that decides that,” Mr Trump told a writer for the Atlantic. “For those people who say they want peace – you can’t have peace if Iran has a nuclear weapon. So for all of those wonderful people who don’t want to do anything about Iran having a nuclear weapon – that’s not peace.”

The podcast critics won’t be any more vitriolic if the President helps end the war sooner by giving Israel the military capability to destroy Fordow and Natanz. Those are the real stakes. Now that the war is underway, the US has a strategic and moral interest in destroying Iran’s nuclear threat and a rapid Israeli victory.