Operation chaos: Whitehall’s secret no-deal plan leaked

An unprecedented leak of government documents lays bare the gaps in contingency planning for a no-deal Brexit.

Farmers shephard their opposition to Brexit to the streets of central London last week. Picture: AP

Britain faces shortages of fuel, food and medicine, a three-month meltdown at its ports, a hard border­ with Ireland and rising costs in social care in the event of a no-deal Brexit, according to an unprecedented leak of government documents that lay bare the gaps in contingency planning.

The documents, which set out the most likely aftershocks of a no-deal Brexit rather than worst-case scenarios, have emerged as Britain looks increasingly likely to crash out of the EU without a deal.

Compiled this month by the Cabinet Office under the codename Operation Yellowhammer, the dossier offers a rare glimpse into the covert planning being carried out by the government to avert a catastrophic collapse in the nation’s infrastructure.

The file, marked “official-­sensitive” — requiring security clearance on a “need to know” basis — is remarkable because it gives the most comprehensive assessmen­t of Britain’s readiness for a no-deal Brexit.

It states that the public and businesses remain largely un­prepared for no deal and that growing “EU exit fatigue” has hampered contingency planning which has stalled since Britain’s original departure date in March.

A senior Whitehall source said: “This is not Project Fear — this is the most realistic assessment of what the public face with no deal. These are likely, basic, reasonable scenarios — not the worst case.”

The revelations include:

● The government expects the return of a hard border in Ireland as current plans to avoid widespread checks will prove “unsustainable”; this may spark protests, road blockages and “direct action”;

● Logjams caused by months of border delays could “affect fuel distribution”, potentially disrupting the fuel supply in London and the southeast of England;

● Up to 85 per cent of trucks using the main Channel crossings “may not be ready” for French Customs and could face delays of up to 2½ days;

● Significant disruption at ports will last up to three months before the flow of traffic “improves­” to 50-70 per cent of the current rate;

● Petrol import tariffs, which the government has set at 0 per cent, will “inadvertently” lead to the closure of two oil refineries, 2000 job losses, widespread strike action and disruptions to fuel availability;

● Medical supplies will “be vulnerab­le to severe extended delay­s” as three-quarters of Britain’s medicines enter the country via the main Channel crossings;

● The availability of fresh food will be reduced and prices will rise. This could hit “vulnerable groups”;

● Potential clashes between British and European Economic Area fishing vessels amid predictions that 282 ships will sail in British waters illegally on Brexit day;

● Protests across Britain, which may “require significant amounts of police resources”;

The revelations come as Prime Minister Boris Johnson signals he would set a date for a election after Britain has left the EU if Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn succeeds in a vote of no confidence — preventing rebels from being able to stop a no-deal Brexit.

Mr Johnson is preparing to hold talks with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chanceller Angela Merkel ahead of this week’s G7 summit in Biarritz. But No 10 played down any prospect of a Brexit breakthrough and Germany believ­es no deal is “highly likely”. The Sunday Telegraph reports­ Mr Johnson would tell the French and German leaders the British parliament cannot stop Brexit. He is expected to tell them that they have two months to agree a deal acceptable to the cabinet and parliament, without which Britain will exit without an agreement on Halloween.

The leak of the Yellowhammer dossier underlines the frustration within Whitehall over the lack of transparency surrounding prep­arations for leaving the EU. ­

“Successive UK governments have a long history of failing to prepare their citizens to be resilient for their own emergencies,” said a Cabinet Office source.

The Sunday Times