Iran’s rapid nuclear progress prompts Israeli attack

It had long been assumed that Iran’s two main nuclear enrichment facilities were buried so deeply into the country’s mountains that it would prove challenging for the Israeli military to destroy them.

A damaged building in the Iranian capital Tehran on Friday. Picture: Getty Images

It had long been assumed that Iran’s two main nuclear enrichment facilities were buried so deeply into the country’s mountains that it would prove challenging for the Israeli military to destroy them.

That did not stop Israel trying on Friday (AEST). It launched a wave of strikes aimed at crippling Iran’s capacity to manufacture a potential bomb, but experts questioned whether the attacks would do anything more than temporarily set back the ­nuclear program.

Israeli missiles struck Natanz, one of the country’s main facilities, and killed some of Iran’s top ­nuclear specialists.

The strikes also killed Iran’s top two military commanders and severely wounded a senior aide to Ayatollah Khamenei who headed nuclear policy.

Israel claimed the threat was “imminent” after Iran enriched more than 400kg of uranium to 60 per cent, just shy of the 90 per cent needed to build a bomb.

The fuel, if weaponised, could be enough for nine nuclear warheads, according to the United Nations.

The attack came a day after the International Atomic Energy Agency declared Iran to be in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for the first time due to Tehran’s unwillingness to disclose information about its nuclear stockpile, and days before Iran and the US were scheduled to hold ­another round of talks to curb the nuclear program.

But Western intelligence agencies, including American ones, had assessed that Iran was not ­currently building a nuclear bomb, although it possessed the know-how to do so.

Iran had always insisted that its nuclear program was meant for peaceful purposes, but that it could build a bomb if its sites were ­attacked.

One expert on Friday said that the Israeli strikes could bring that moment closer.

“It’s far more likely now that Iran will withdraw from the non-proliferation treaty and make the decision to build nuclear weapons,” said Kelesy Davenport, the director for Nonproliferation Policy at the Arms Control Association.

“Israel cannot destroy the knowledge Iran has gained about nuclear development. There is already a real risk that Iran is already diverting enriched uranium to covert sites. So Israeli strikes can set back the program, but Israel cannot stop Iran indefinitely,” Ms Davenport said.

In order to fully destroy Iran’s two main enrichment facilities Israel would need American military support.

Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli Prime Minister, appeared close to convincing US President Donald Trump to authorise a joint US-Israeli strike when six American B-2 spirit bombers lined up on Diego Garcia, the US military base in the Indian Ocean, in April.

Mr Trump said the US did not take part in Friday’s attacks, although it had knowledge they would take place.

He said he hoped that Iran would come to the next round of talks willing to compromise, but Tehran is unlikely to negotiate now that it is under fire.

After the strikes, Marco Rubio, the US Secretary of State, made it clear that the US was not involved and urged Iran not to launch any reprisal attacks on American forces.

“Let me be clear: Iran should not target US interests or personnel,” Mr Rubio said.

Last year, Iran fired drones, cruise and ballistic missiles at Israel on two occasions and it appears likely that Tehran will retaliate.

Those previous exchanges avoided setting off a devastating regional war because of the strength of Israeli air defences.

But with each attack, the risk increases that a missile gets through.

Indeed, Mr Netanyahu may calculate that an Iranian misstep could drag the US into the conflict – forcing Mr Trump to reconsider his opposition to a strike on Tehran’s nuclear facilities.

The Times