Missile or drone killed Ismail Haniyeh in his bedroom

Iran has said Ismail Haniyeh’s building was hit by a ‘projectile’ that took out its window and wall. The most likely method was a missile fired from a jet or a strike drone.

Israel has a fleet of F-35 jets but would have had to overfly Syria, Turkey and Iraq. Picture: AFP.

Israel’s assassination toolkit is the most feared in the world. In the past 15 years it has featured drone strikes, sticky car bombs, syringes of poison wielded by Mossad agents dressed in tennis gear, and robot machineguns.

Ismail Haniyeh’s killing was unannounced on the Israeli side – some killings are admitted immediately, like the strike on the Hezbollah leader Fuad Shukr on Tuesday night, some not. Iran’s only clue as to the method used on this occasion was that the residence where he was staying in Tehran was hit by a “projectile”. A Hamas official said it took out the window and wall of Haniyeh’s room, killing him and his bodyguard.

Hundreds of Iranians protest against the killing of Ismail Haniyeh. Picture: Getty Images.

If that is correct, the most likely method was a missile fired from a jet or a strike drone.

Israel is thought to have long-range Jericho cruise missiles, but that would be a much cruder tool.

An airstrike would raise the question of how the aircraft, manned or unmanned, approached close enough to Tehran to fire with such accuracy.

Israel has a fleet of F-35 fighter bombers, which could no doubt penetrate Iranian airspace, avoiding Tehran’s old S-300 Russian air defence systems.

To do so, though, they would have to overfly not only Syria but also countries where the US operates, such as Turkey or Iraq, raising sensitivities. The US says it was not notified of the attack.

Drones fired by Hellfire Ninja R9X missile have been responsible for some of the most pinpoint recent assassinations in Gaza.

Drones, either long-range or fired from Iran itself by placed agents, is another possibility. Drones armed with Hellfire RX9 “Ninja” missiles have been responsible for some of the most pinpoint recent assassinations, in Gaza by Israel but also of Islamic State and al-Qaeda leaders by the US. They do, however, have a relatively short range.

Amwaj, a well-sourced blog covering Iranian politics, suggested that the attack was conducted by an armed quadrocopter drone – a relatively simple device that all sides in the Middle East are now using to greater or lesser effect. Again, they would have to have been launched relatively close by.

Precedents can be found for all these suggestions. Quadrocopters launched from the Mediterranean were almost certainly used to attack Iranian-supplied missile fuel containers being delivered to Hezbollah in Beirut in 2019.

Israel has shown its ability to conduct long-range attacks on key military targets in Iran in recent years, even if many have not been claimed. A series of explosions damaged uranium enrichment and missile sites central to Iran’s nuclear weapons program in 2020-21, with methods variously given as cyberattacks, sabotage, bombs planted by agents and air strikes.

The clearest precedent for the Haniyeh strike, however, came in April. At the beginning of that month an Israeli air strike on a building in the compound of the Iranian embassy in Damascus killed a number of senior Revolutionary Guard officers. Iran retaliated with a mass drone attack on Israel, most of which were intercepted.

The air defence system at an air base in Iran's Isfahan attacked by Israel. Picture: AFP.

The final blow in that tit-for-tat round was an individual air strike, believed to be by a drone, probably jet-fired from outside the country, which hit an air defence radar in the Iranian city of Isfahan.

At the time it was pointed out that although pinpoint, this was a minor target, which could be replaced within a day. The real purpose, analysts concluded, was to warn Iran of Israeli attack capabilities – capabilities it seems to have deployed yesterday (Wednesday) morning.

The Times