Who will replace Ismail Haniyeh as Hamas leader?

Hamas’ Shura council will meet after Ismail Haniyeh’s funeral to choose a new leader, who will have to balance relations with Iran with ceasefire negotiations with Israel. These are the contenders.

Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh was killed in an air strike on Tehran. Picture: Getty Images.

The assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, who has led the group since 2017, has left a vacuum at the top and brought negotiations over a ceasefire with Israel to an abrupt standstill.

Haniyeh’s death, coming weeks after Israel claims to have killed Hamas’ shadowy military leader Mohammed Deif, leaves only Yahya Sinwar, Hamas’ military leader in Gaza, free and in hiding in the tunnels under the enclave.

Yesterday’s assassination is the highest profile killing of any Hamas leader since the Gaza war began, and a huge psychological blow for the terror group.

Hamas’ Shura council will now meet after Haniyeh’s funeral – expected to take place later today in Qatar – to choose a new leader, who will have to balance relations with Iran, Hezbollah and Turkey with ceasefire negotiations with Israel.

Khaled Mashaal in 2006.

The lead contender for the title is Khaled Mashaal, who led Hamas until 2017, Reuters and Israeli media report.

Hamas sources told Reuters that Mashaal was expected to be chosen to replace Haniyeh, with Khalil al-Hayya, who is based in Qatar and has held hostage deal talks with Israel, another possibility for the leadership.

Mashaal, 68, became Hamas’s political leader in exile in 1996, the year before Israel tried to assassinate him with poison outside his office in Amman, Jordan.

The Times of Israel reports that he has political and diplomatic experience, but his relations with Iran, Syria and Hezbollah have soured over his support for Arab Spring protests in 2011. When he was in Lebanon in 2021, Hezbollah leaders reportedly refused to meet with him, but he has good relations with Turkey and Qatar.

Yahya Sinwar and Ismail Haniyeh (L) during a memorial in Gaza City in 2017. Picture: AFP.

However his appointment is likely to be opposed by Sinwar, who lies at the other end of the political spectrum.

Khalil al-Hayya, who is a favourite of Iran and has good relations with Turkey and Syria, is another strong contender.

Hani al-Masri, who heads the Palestinian Center for Policy and Research and Strategic Studies, told the Times of Israel al-Hayya was seen to be like Haniyeh: “Balanced and flexible and both sides don’t see his leadership as problematic.”

A third and less likely contender is Zaher Jabarin, described as the group’s chief executive officer because of his role in managing the group’s finances, and his good relations with Iran.

Al-Masri told The Times that Nizar Abu Ramadan, who had challenged Sinwar for the role of Gaza chief and is considered close to Mashaal, was also a possible choice.

However the final decision will be complicated by the difficulty in reaching Sinwar, who must be consulted but can’t communicate from his hiding place in the vast tunnel network below Gaza’s southern city of Khan Younis.