Labour to win biggest majority since 1852: poll

Labour is on track to win the largest majority of any party in modern history, with the Conservatives on course to win just 102 seats.

Labour is on track to win the largest majority of any party in modern history, a large poll has suggested, as Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer made their final appeals for support.

As voters went to the polls on Thursday, the last YouGov survey of the campaign found that Labour was on track for a 212 seat majority, with the Conservatives reduced to just 102 MPs.

However, Sunak urged voters who had abandoned his party to return, saying that they had the “power to prevent an unchecked Labour government”.

The prime minister said he went into polling day with a “clear conscience” knowing that he had worked as hard as he could to do “right for the country”.

Starmer said that a Labour victory would usher in a “new age of hope and opportunity after 14 years of chaos and decline”. He added: “Britain’s future is on the ballot.”

The YouGov poll found that Starmer was on track to become prime minister tomorrow (Friday) with 431 MPs – which would be not only Labour’s best election performance but the biggest majority for any party since 1832.

The Tories were predicted to lose more than 70 per cent of the seats they won five years ago.

Some of the biggest names in Conservative politics would lose their seats under this projection. Potentially 16 of the 26 cabinet ministers who are standing could go, including Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor.

The list of likely losers includes Sir Iain Duncan Smith, the former Tory leader, and potential leadership contenders such as Robert Jenrick. Other cabinet ministers predicted to lose their seats include Penny Mordaunt, Grant Shapps, Esther McVey and Richard Holden.

The poll suggests that the Conservatives’ position has worsened since YouGov’s last large-scale survey, despite a series of stark warnings about the risks of a Labour “supermajority”.

The Liberal Democrats were predicted to win 72 seats, which would be the party’s best performance. Reform UK has dropped back slightly and is now expected to win only three seats, down from five in YouGov’s last large-scale MRP poll – which models results by constituency.

In his final comments of the campaign, Sunak urged voters to think again before casting their ballot.

“If the polls are to be believed, the country could wake up tomorrow to a Labour supermajority ready to wield their unchecked power, put up everyone’s taxes and leave the UK vulnerable to the threats we face at home and abroad,” he said. “You have the power, you have a voice, you have a vote – use it to stop Starmer, to stop a Labour supermajority.”

He said that even if he lost he could sleep comfortably knowing he did what he believed was right. “[A] clear conscience is the softest pillow,” he said.

Starmer urged people not to take the polls for granted and to ensure that if they wanted a Labour government they voted for it.

“The British people deserve a government that matches their ambition,” he said. “Today is the chance to begin the work of rebuilding Britain with Labour. But change will only happen if you vote for it.”

He declared he was “ready for government” and vowed to “hit the ground running” if he became prime minister.

Nigel Farage said “the country needs to take a very different direction” from that of the two main parties. The Reform UK leader predicted that “British politics will break up in the next five years”.

Writing in The Times today, the two politicians vying to be the next chancellor also made their case for why voters should support them.

Hunt said that while he could “understand” why people were frustrated, his party was still more trustworthy on the economy. “People elect Conservatives to make the responsible decisions to get people through tough times,” he said. “Unlike Labour, we won’t just tell you what you want to hear.”

Rachel Reeves said that while Labour would take a different “approach” to the nation’s finances, she would prioritise “delivering economic stability”.

She repeated Labour’s pledge not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT, saying that “stability on tax” was integral to Labour’s approach. “I do not believe you can tax and spend your way to growth,” she added. “Instead, we need investment and we need reform.”

The Tory big beasts at risk: what seats to watch when

9.15am AEST Richard Holden, Tory party chairman Basildon and Billericay (

11am AEST Kemi Badenoch, Secretary of State for Business and Trade: North West Essex

11.45am AEST Oliver Dowden, Deputy PM: Hertsmere

12pm AEST Suella Braverman, former Home Secretary: Fareham and Waterlooville

12.30pm AEST Jeremy Hunt, Chancellor of the Exchequer: Godalming

12.30pm AEST Penny Mordaunt, leader of the Commons: Portsmouth North

12.30pm AEST Grant Schapps, Defence Secretary: Welwyn Hatfield

1pm AEST James Cleverly, Home Secretary: Braintree

1pm AEST Rishi Sunak, PM: Richmond and Northallerton

2.30pm AEST Liz Truss, former PM: South-west Norfolk