Erdogan’s betraying NATO for a Putin love-in

Finland and Sweden’s admission to the pact is being held up by Turkey at the Kremlin’s behest. Putin will never be a pariah as long as Erdogan is happy to help.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Picture: AFP

No wonder the Russians don’t want Finland in NATO. As Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine turns into what will be a long winter war there are plenty of folk memories of how the Finns gave the Red Army a bloody nose in 1939-40.

Stalin’s army was reputed to be one of the best in the world. It outnumbered and outgunned the Finns by four to one yet the ghost patrols of the ski troops kept the Russians at bay for months, ripping out sentries’ bellies with their puukko hunting knives.

Today’s war in Ukraine is about to turn even nastier. With the added advantage of western training and western weapons, the Ukrainian soldiers are shaping up to be, like the Finns more than 80 years ago, a modern, fast-thinking home defence force capable of humiliating Moscow.

Finnish Defence Minister Antti Kaikkonen, right, speaks with his Swedish counterpart Peter Hultqvist at the second meeting of NATO defence ministers in Brussels this month. Picture: Getty Images

Those who have chosen to be non-aligned, such as India and other Asian countries, must be scratching their heads; China must be nervous about being in cahoots with what looks like a military power in steep decline. NATO is taking heart: alliance solidarity and expansion can, despite decades of defeatism, shrink the power of Putin and his ilk.

But not NATO member Turkey. While the rest of the alliance has been rushing to ratify the admission of Finland and Sweden, Ankara hasn’t even started on the process. The two traditionally neutral Nordic states cannot join the transatlantic pact until there is complete unanimity.

Instead Recep Tayyip Erdogan pursues a reckless love-in with Putin. The Turkish president imagines he is treading the statesmanlike path; in fact he is administering increasingly stronger doses of strychnine to the defence of the West.

Erdogan was of course quick to offer Putin 70th birthday greetings this month. He opposes sanctions against Russia and actively seeks to profit from the situation. Trade with Russia has hit a new high: $50 billion so far this year. Turkish Airlines is laying on bigger aircraft on its Russian routes because of a tourism boom. Russians have bought more than 8000 properties in Turkey so far this year (it was 5000 last year). Moscow’s oligarchs feel safe mooring and kitting out their yachts in Turkey. When Erdogan wants to annoy the Americans he buys air defence systems from Russia. The result: Putin will never be a pariah as long as Erdogan is happy to help.

The Marshall Islands flagged Star Helena that left the Ukrainian port of Chornomorsk transits the Bosphorus strait in Istanbul, Turkey. Picture: Getty Images

The Turkish president wants something in return: help from Russia in winning a new term in office next June. With galloping inflation and a wrecked economy Erdogan needs to pull something out of the hat. That could come in the form of a pre-election offer to young Turkish voters of help in getting on the property ladder. Russia might be ready to finance that.

The Turkish leader is a transactionalist politician. It could even be that he wins from Finland (and especially from Sweden) tougher enforcement of extradition laws against the many Kurdish exiles living there in return for being the last NATO country to accept the two new Nordic members.

Or he may just hold up the ratification process until after his election, by which time the tide of war might have switched in favour of Putin, or western support for Volodymyr Zelensky weakened.

But the relationship with Putin is about more than trading favours. They are both long servers (Putin since 2000, Erdogan since 2014) and have come to understand each other’s limits. As an old spy, Putin likes dealing with neutral states and would certainly prefer Finland to stay that way. He wants an internationally enforced neutrality for Ukraine, dances at private weddings in neutral Austria and is said to have squirrelled some of his fortune in neutral Switzerland.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky gestures during a press-conference following talks with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Picture: AFP

His strategic aim would be that Turkey leaves NATO and declares neutrality. Knowing that to be unrealistic, he would settle for Turkey being a constant complicating factor, a shifty, unreliable ally for the western alliance. That’s what he has got as long as Erdogan remains in power.

That may mean accepting for a while Turkey’s dealing with an independent Ukrainian state. But Putin knows how to subtly unravel any Turkish relationship with Kyiv. Erdogan co-negotiated the opening of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports but the grain exports are only trickling through to customers in the developing world. Why? Russia is holding up the processing of the cargos – 150 ships are in a logjam.

The already fragile agreement is set to end next month and Putin intends to exploit the deadline to the detriment of Kyiv. Erdogan will be the middleman, extracting concessions from the Ukrainians to the advantage of his friend.

Turkey gave an early boost to Ukrainian troops with supplies of drones. Now these are drying up and Russia is investing in a cheaper Iranian drone force. Result: Ukraine is exposed from the air and Turkey has been taught that it is not the only drone supplier in the crisis.

Erdogan and Putin’s interests collide in many global flashpoints, in Libya, northern Syria, in Nagorno-Karabakh, but they usually stay friends.

The Turkish leader believes this is down to his own diplomatic genius. The Russian leader probably believes he has turned the new sultan into a useful idiot.

They share, and are bonded by, a deep distrust of American intentions. That is not a healthy foundation for the new NATO.

Finland and Sweden should join the alliance immediately and bring with them their highly developed ideas on strategic resilience. Erdogan meanwhile should make his choice: to work towards a joint defence of the West or enjoy a long retirement with Putin, the war criminal.

A Ukrainian Military Forces serviceman aims with a Next generation Light Anti-tank Weapon Swedish-British anti-aircraft missile launcher. Picture: AFP

The Times