Donald Trump and Joe Biden drive voters to seek third way

Americans are in the mood to welcome a president from outside the Democratic and Republican parties, according to polling that points to deep disaffection with both sides.

Ross Perot claimed 18.9 per cent of the vote in 1992, the most since Theodore Roosevelt came second in 1912 after leaving the Republican Party. Picture: AFP

The next US presidential election presents an “unprecedented opportunity” for an independent or third-party candidate if Joe Biden and Donald Trump run again, with a majority of Americans keen to see the back of both of them.

A total of 58 per cent of voters are open to a moderate figure from outside the two main parties in 2024, according to the polling company Harris, a sign of deep frustration among traditional supporters of the Democratic and Republican parties alike.

The most recent such candidate to make a big impression in a presidential race was billionaire businessman Ross Perot, who claimed 18.9 per cent of the vote in 1992, the most since Theodore Roosevelt came second in 1912 after leaving the Republican Party.

No alternative candidate has yet emerged for 2024, but there are intriguing possibilities from both sides of the political spectrum. They include the entrepreneur Andrew Yang, who stood in the 2020 Democrat primaries and started the Forward Party last year, while an anti-Trump conservative such as Liz Cheney might decide to oppose the former president either within or outside the Republican Party.

Voters were asked whether they would “consider a moderate independent candidate for president if the 2024 match was between Donald Trump and Joe Biden”. The 58 per cent who would included 60 per cent of Democrats, 47 per cent of Republicans and 71 per cent of independent voters. The feeling was strongest among younger voters, with 66 per cent of those aged 18 to 49 answering in the affirmative.

“America wants to move forward not back,” said Mark Penn, co-director of the Harvard Centre for American Political Studies-Harris Poll survey. “I’ve never seen a number this high for an independent run.”

The polling highlighted the paradox at the heart of general disaffection with the US two-party system: while an overall majority of the public did not want to see either Mr Biden or Mr Trump on the ballot, both remain the top candidate among committed supporters of their respective parties.

Overall, 63 per cent of respondents said they did not want Mr Biden to run for a second term and 55 per cent did not want Mr Trump to run again. Among their own bases, Mr Biden was the top 2024 presidential nominee with 37 per cent Democrat support, followed by Vice-President Kamala Harris on 14 per cent. Mr Trump was on 58 per cent support if a Republican primary was held today, ahead of Florida governor Ron DeSantis on 13 per cent.

At the next election Mr Trump will be 78 and Mr Biden will be two weeks short of his 82nd birthday. Mr Trump is campaigning as if he is running, although he has not declared his candidacy. Mr Biden maintains that he will run again.

Third party or independent candidates who attract attention are usually wealthy and already in the public eye. The best-known of hundreds of alternative candidates in 2020 was the singer Kanye West, although his run under the Birthday Party banner was dogged by suspicions that the true aim was to help Mr Trump by taking votes from Mr Biden.

West, 44, who now calls himself Ye, achieved the seventh-highest vote total behind candidates from the Green and Libertarian parties and two other independents. He has suggested he may run again.

Mr Yang, 47, has said his Forward Party is open to both Democrats and Republicans, and is mainly a vehicle to push for reform of primary contests so they do not favour hardline candidates. This still leaves open the possibility that he could run for president, although in a system where any third candidate is usually seen as taking votes mainly from one side or the other, he could be accused of splitting the Democratic vote.

One popular figure long linked to an independent run is Dwayne Johnson, the actor known as The Rock from his wrestling days.

Johnson, 49, who has the sixth most popular Instagram account, with 312 million followers, told USA Today last year: “I would consider a presidential run in the future if that’s what the people wanted.”

He describes himself as “a political independent and centrist”.

The Times