Fewer Chinese marriages spells economic trouble
The number of people marrying in China fell by a fifth last year to the lowest level in more than four decades.
The number of people marrying in China fell by a fifth last year to the lowest level in more than four decades – bad news for a country whose low birth rate threatens its long-term economic health.
Just 6.1 million Chinese couples married in 2024, according to new government figures, the lowest level ever recorded and a sharp fall from the 7.7 million from the previous year.
The number of newlyweds last year was less than half that in 2013, when there were 13.5 million marriages. Meanwhile the number of divorces rose 1.1 per cent to 2.82 million.
China’s overall population fell for the third year running in 2024 even though births increased a little, partly because the Year of the Dragon is considered auspicious.
However, it was still the second lowest number of births since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949.
Analysts said that the fall in marriages would contribute to the long-term trend of fewer children. In China most local governments require a marriage certificate to register the birth of a child. The country’s demographic problems have complex causes and there are similar trends in South Korea, Japan and countries in North America and Europe. In the long term, countries with lower rates of marriage have fewer children. Diminishing populations face labour shortages that shrink their economies and cause a crisis in social security, as the number of older people claiming welfare surpasses the number of younger, working taxpayers.
The roots of the deficit lie in China’s increased affluence over the past 40 years – around the world, middle-class city-dwellers have fewer children than poorer, rural populations. It was accentuated by the one-child policy, by which China attempted to curb overpopulation from the late 1970s until 2016. The policy reduced the population of women of child-bearing age and created a generation of families who, with only a daughter to look after, encouraged and supported them in education. With good qualifications and employment prospects, it has been harder to persuade these women to follow the traditional model of giving up their careers to marry and look after children.
The Times
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