Taiwan peace ‘through strength’, says leading candidate William Lai

The leading candidate in Taiwan’s presidential election says he is open to dialogue with Beijing amid fears about China’s response to Saturday’s election.

Democratic Progressive Party presidential candidate William Lai. Picture: Getty Images

The leading candidate in Taiwan’s presidential race says he is open to dialogue with Beijing but warns against “delusions or fantasies” about what is possible in dealings with Xi Jinping, as fears increase about China’s response to this weekend’s election.

Beijing has made clear its hostility towards William Lai, the presidential candidate for the ­ruling Democratic Progressive Party, calling him a “trouble­maker” and declaring that Saturday’s election is a choice between “war or peace”.

Polls show Mr Lai, currently Taiwan’s vice-president, is narrowly leading a race to replace his boss Tsai Ing-wen and win an ­unprecedented third term for the independence-leaning DPP.

Asked by The Australian in Taipei on Tuesday how he would pursue dialogue with Beijing if elected, he said he would continue the approach of Ms Tsai.

“If we have parity and dignity, I will be willing to conduct co-­operation with China to increase the wellbeing of people across the strait,” Mr Lai said.

“I hope that if I become president, China will realise that peaceful development is the responsibility of both sides.”

Beijing has severed all communication with Taipei since Ms Tsai was elected in 2016, with a spokesman for the Chinese President dismissing her vision for Taiwan Strait relations as “an ­incomplete test answer”.

Instead, Mr Xi ordered waves of economic coercion, rolling disinformation campaigns and a sharp increase in the numbers of People’s Liberation Army jet fighters and ships operating near Taiwan.

Diplomats in Taipei have told The Australian they are braced for retribution from Beijing if Mr Lai wins on the weekend. “We’re expecting a big response,” said one Western diplomat.

Senior security officials in Taipei admit a win by Mr Lai will trigger an angry reaction from China. They expect further economic coercion and a ramp-up of threatening PLA activity.

Wellington Koo, who leads Ms Tsai’s National Security Council, has forecast increased Chinese grey-zone activity from the election until the presidential inauguration if Mr Lai wins.

In the months leading up to the election, the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) has amplified Beijing’s framing of the contest as a choice between “war or peace”. A senior adviser to the KMT’s presidential candidate, Hou Yu-ih, said the opposition party’s victory could “buy time” for Taiwan, the US and its allies, including Australia.

The KMT, or Nationalists, fought the Chinese Communist Party for decades in a bloody civil war, but the party is now Beijing’s preferred dialogue partner in Taiwan because – unlike the DPP – it shares the idea of “One China” (while disagreeing over who rules it).

The DPP has replied by accusing the KMT of co-ordinating its election messaging with the Communist Party.

“We have a political party here in Taiwan that appears to be working with (Beijing) in lock-step to spread political narratives,” Mr Lai’s campaign spokesman Vincent Chao told The Australian in an interview.

Mr Chao said that while the KMT had campaigned promising to increase Taiwan’s military deterrence capabilities, “their past actions simply don’t lend them credibility”.

The DPP spokesman said Taiwan’s ruling party had demonstrated it took self-defence ­seriously during Ms Tsai’s two terms. “We’ve almost doubled defence spending over the past eight years. We’ve seen, for example, conscription go back to 12 months. We’ve brought in new capabilities from abroad, and produced new capabilities indigenously,” he said.

Former president Ma Ying-jeou, from the KMT party, has said recently that Taiwan “could never fight the mainland” because China is “too large”.

Mr Ma, who remains an influential figure in the KMT, said Taipei needed to “use non-military means to reduce tensions”.

Asked about those comments at a media conference for international press on Tuesday, Mr Lai said he took a different approach to dealing with China.

“Of course we must have ­ideals when it comes to peace, but we should not have delusions or fantasies,” he said. “Accepting China’s ‘One China Principle’ – that is not true peace. Without sovereignty, peace would be like what they have in Hong Kong. That is not true peace. We are trying to achieve peace through strength. We are not trying to depend on the goodwill of an ­aggressor – that is not credible.”

Mr Chao, who also heads the DPP’s international affairs office, visited Canberra last year to meet with federal government officials ahead of the election.

He told The Australian he had been impressed by Canberra’s interest in the Taiwan Strait.

“Having met with members of policy circles in Canberra, I was struck by how keenly Australia took an interest in the ­security of the Taiwan Strait, on how peace here in the region was not only in the interests of Taiwan, but also Australia,” he said.