Shortages of food and drugs in no-deal Brexit

Boris Johnson faces pressure to recall parliament after he was forced to reveal a no-deal Brexit could trigger shortages.

Lord Colin Carloway, Scotland's most senior judge, hands down his ruling in Edinburgh on Wednesday. Picture: AP

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has faced renewed pressure to recall parliament after he was forced to reveal that a no-deal Brexit could trigger medical shortages, food price rises and major cross-channel trade delays.

The opposition seized on the release of Operation Yellowhammer assessments of the impact of leaving the EU without an agreement to insist MPs return to Westminster.

It comes after Scottish judges on Wednesday branded the suspension of parliament “unlawful”. While releasing analysis on impacts of no-deal, the government refused to comply with a similar House of Commons demand to make public personal messages from special advisers regarding the five-week prorogation of parliament. The move came as judgment was due on Thursday night in a legal challenge that argued the government’s Brexit strategy will damage the Northern Ireland peace process.

The “reasonable worst case planning assessments” of a no-deal exit which were released at the demand of MPs showed that hold-ups at channel ports could occur, along with “significant” electricity price rises and a return to a hard border in Northern Ireland.

On food, the document warned that some fresh supplies will decrease and that “critical dependencies for the food chain” such as key ingredients “may be in shorter supply”. It said these factors would not lead to overall food shortages, “but will reduce the availability and choice of products and will increase price, which could impact vulnerable groups”.

“Low-income groups will be disproportionately affected by any price rises in food and fuel,” the document also said.

The analysis said the flow of cross-Channel goods could be reduced to 40 per cent of current rates on day one, with “significant disruption lasting up to six months”. “Unmitigated, this will have an impact on the supply of medicines and medical supplies,” it said. “The reliance of medicines and medical products’ supply chains on the short straits crossing make them particularly vulnerable to severe extended delays.” As well, it said “significant electricity (price) increases for consumers” were likely.

The document’s assumptions are “as of August 2” this year. It’s very similar to one leaked to The Sunday Times last month, which the government insisted was out of date. The release came after the Court of Session in Edinburgh found ministers had stopped MPs from sitting for the “improper purpose of stymieing parliament”. It said advice given by ministers to the Queen which led to the prorogation was therefore “unlawful and is thus null and of no effect”.

The government immediately announced it was lodging an appeal against the ruling with the Supreme Court, with a hearing set for next Tuesday.

Critics say the proroguing of parliament until October 14 is an attempt by Mr Johnson to silence opposition to his plan to leave the EU on October 31, even if he has no reached a deal with Brussels.

Mr Johnson argues while he is working to get a deal, Britain must leave the bloc regardless, three years after the referendum vote for Brexit. Before it was suspended on Tuesday, the Commons rushed through legislation to force Mr Johnson to delay Mr Brexit if there is no deal by an EU summit on October 17.

Wednesday’s court ruling sparked calls for parliament to be recalled.

“I urge the Prime Minister to immediately recall parliament so we can debate this judgment and decide what happens next,” said Labour’s Brexit spokesman Keir Starmer.

However, a government source said that “nothing is changing” until the court case was concluded.

Mr Johnson took questions from the public in a live address on Facebook, where he was asked if he was the “leader of an authoritarian regime”. “I must respectfully disagree with you,” he replied. “What we’re trying to do is to implement the result of the 2016 referendum.”

AP, AFP