Rishi Sunak, majority of Tory cabinet set to lose seats in poll bloodbath

The Tories are set to lose all but 53 seats in the July 4 election, with James Cleverly and Penny Mordaunt joining Rishi Sunak in the political wilderness.

The British general election on July 4 will see such a wipe-out of the Conservative Party that it risks losing all but 53 seats and not even being the opposition, the latest predictive model shows.

Rishi Sunak could be the first prime minister in recent British history to lose his seat along with three quarters of the current cabinet, with the jockeying for leadership of the hapless Tories simply a matter of who is left standing.

The upcoming bloodbath has been predicted by an extensive poll by Savanta and Electoral Calculus, which shows that the increasing support for Nigel Farage’s Reform is not enough to convert to seats under the first past the post British system.

The poll’s landslide victory to Labour is not seen as any surprise, but is confirmation of the extent of frustration the electorate has about Mr Sunak as a leader and the Tory party as a whole.

Mr Sunak, who has led a dismal campaign, including leaving international D-Day commemorations early in favour of recording a television interview, is tipped to suffer a swing against him of nearly 35 per cent with his northern England seat of Richmond possibly switching to Labour.

Under the Savanta prediction, three-quarters of the current Cabinet are on course to lose their seats including big beasts such as James Cleverly, Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt, Suella Braverman, Robert Jenrick and the former prime minister Liz Truss. The survey shows that the current business secretary Kemi Badenoch, who sits to the right of the party, is one of just six Tory cabinet survivors in a party that will be reduced to just 53 MPs.

Leader of the House of Commons Penny Mordaunt may lose her seat. Picture: ITV via Getty Images.

Home Secretary James Cleverly is also set to be voted out of parliament. Picture: Getty Images.

The dramatic result, if it eventuates, will utterly overshadow the Tony Blair revolution with Sir Keir Starmer leading a Labour majority double that of the 1997 result and returning to Westminster with 516 MPs and a majority of 382.

The Liberal Democrats, led by Sir Ed Davey, are fighting with the Tories to be the voice of opposition with around 50 seats, the poll predicts.

The disillusionment with the Tories, their chaotic leadership and infighting, raising taxes, and inability to control immigration has been confirmed by the widespread and weary malaise of the British public struggling with day to day living costs. This week there was come good news, with inflation finally falling in line with targets, but even such economic brightness has failed to spark the flailing Tory campaign.

The desire for change is borne out by the polls, even though most are wary of Sir Keir’s flip flopping on policies, feared tax rises and there is an expectation that the British public will come to regret their voting decisions within a short time.

Savanta polled around 18,000 people for the British newspaper, The Telegraph, which is traditionally supportive of the Tory party.

Savanta has predicted that Labour will attract 44 per cent of the vote, the Conservatives 23 per cent, Reform 13 per cent, the Lib Dems 12 per cent, the Greens four per cent, the SNP three per cent and Plaid Cymru one per cent. Reform’s broad support across the nation, rather than a concentration in particular seats is not expected to translate to many, or any, seats. Their position is in contrast with the Liberal Democrats who poll well in south east Britain and pockets of London.

Savanta’s polling backs other political analysts who say Reform, despite it’s surge in popularity, will struggle to win a seat, while the Lib Dems, with a similar overall vote, could conceivably battle to overtake the Tories as the main opposition party with around 50 MPs.