Nigel Farage’s Reform UK overtakes Tories in poll for first time

Nigel Farage has declared his party is ‘now the real opposition to Labour’ after the YouGov poll showing an increase in support for Reform, in another blow to Rishi Sunak’s electoral hopes.

Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party has overtaken the Conservatives in a poll for the first time in a symbolic moment that deals another blow to Rishi Sunak’s electoral hopes.

The YouGov survey for The Times found that support for Reform had risen by two points to 19 per cent, with the Tories unchanged on 18 per cent.

It is the first time any poll has shown Reform ahead of the Tories, a so-called crossover moment. It will particularly concern Tory strategists as it was carried out after the party published its manifesto on Tuesday. After the poll was released, Farage said: “We are now the real opposition to Labour.”

However, in somewhat better news for the Conservatives the poll also found that 80 per cent of those backing Reform said that a very large majority for Labour would be a “bad thing for the country”. This week the Tories have adopted a strategy of warning that people who vote Reform could hand Labour a super-majority that would put Labour in power for a decade or more – yet the poll highlighted the challenge facing Tory strategists in converting this sentiment into votes. Only 22 per cent of Reform voters thought Labour would win any kind of majority.

The poll also suggested that Sunak’s decision to leave D-Day commemorations early had badly damaged the prime minister’s standing. Fifty-six per cent described it as a “serious error” that reflected badly on Sunak’s character, including 64 per cent of Reform voters and 48 per cent of people who had yet to decide who to vote for. The story has also cut through with the public: 68 per cent of voters said they had heard at least a “fair amount” about it.

Overall Labour retained a 19-point lead over the Conservatives, while the Liberal Democrats were down one point at 14 per cent. Anthony Wells, head of European political and social research at YouGov, said the poll was significant as it was the first to reach the “politically important point of showing Reform ahead of the Conservatives”.

He added: “Obviously all polls have a margin of error, so we can’t conclude for certain that more voters now back Nigel Farage’s party over the Conservatives. But what it does make clear is that at the very least the Conservatives and Reform are at a very similar level of support to each other.

“That in itself is remarkable given how close we are to an election when we might otherwise have expected smaller parties’ votes to be squeezed.”

The poll also suggested that the Tory manifesto had had no positive impact on voter sentiment. Asked to consider what they had seen or heard about the Conservatives’ plans, only 13 per cent of voters said they would be good for them and their family. Among voters backing the Tories, 54 per cent said the plans would be good for them, but only 15 per cent of Reform voters said they would be good. Twenty-three per cent of Reform voters said they would be very bad.

YouGov questioned more than 2200 adults in an online poll on Wednesday and yesterday (Thursday).

The Times