Muscular Trump brings America First back – but will it last?

Trump’s showmanship this week means many Americans already feel he’s delivering for them. But navigating the tides of US politics and world events will become harder - and the warning signs are there.

Donald Trump speaks to the media after signing Executive Orders in the Oval Office of the White House. Picture: AFP.

The world is witnessing an audacious new model of executive leadership with an ascendant Donald Trump using his first week to test the limits of presidential power, challenge the American constitution and impose his will over the GOP in the US Congress.

This has been a successful opening gambit from Trump who has looked strong by acting swiftly and decisively through executive orders to deliver on his agenda. Already troops have been deployed to the southern border, deportation raids commenced, DEI (Diversity, Equity and Inclusion) programs terminated and bureaucrats returned to working from the office.

At the end of the first week, Trump is riding high and supremely confident – pardoning violent January 6 rioters, pressuring Putin to enter talks for a deal in Ukraine and threatening a global trade war at the World Economic Forum in Davos – telling the global elite:

“Come make your product in America and we will give you among the lowest taxes of any nation on Earth. If you don’t make your product in America, you will have to pay a tariff.”

But navigating the tides of US politics and world events will become harder and early warning signs are already emerging. Trump must resist the tendency to overreach; he has only a narrow margin in Congress, his executive orders have been hit with legal actions, the pardons for January 6 protesters have unnerved many on his own team and two Republicans, Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins, are opposing his nominee for Defence Secretary, Pete Hegseth.

There are also questions over the future of the personal relationship between Trump and his key adviser Elon Musk, with the world’s richest man this week critiquing the $500bn “Stargate” AI project unveiled by the President. There must be questions over what impact a falling-out between the two men could have on the MAGA support base.

There are questions over the future of the personal relationship between Trump and his key adviser Elon Musk. Picture: AFP.

For the moment, Trump is seeing how much he can achieve by adopting a muscular approach to the top job. After only a few days of Trump 2.0, a number of initial judgments can be made about the new model of leadership on display in the White House.

Love him or despite him, Trump is the most effective political dramatist of the era. A natural showman, he has a flair for selling a political message and turning the great debates of the times into mass entertainment.

The stunning example of this new approach was how Trump ran the first day of his second term, starting with his inaugural address and ending with his free-wheeling Oval Office press conference.

The inaugural address was a masterclass in the art of contrast. To enliven the promise of the next four years – his “American golden age” – Trump mercilessly trashed the Democratic legacy of the previous four and discredited outgoing president Joe Biden.

Ungracious but effective, Trump knows his light will shine more brightly against a past that seems even darker. That is why Trump claims to be restoring “common sense” to government, describing the former administration as part of “a radical and corrupt establishment” that betrayed the interests of Americans.

Donald Trump holds the executive order he signed to declassify the files of assassinated former President John F. Kennedy, former Attorney-General Robert F. Kennedy and civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr. Picture: AFP.

Hours later, Trump was approving the first of scores of executive orders at a desk in front of a stadium of 20,000 people who cheered wildly as he held up each signed measure. The effective use of theatre and showmanship means that – by the end of his first week – many Americans may feel he’s already delivering for them.

Second, Trump uses the presidency as a vehicle to project the force of his personality in a way unlike any other democratic leader of the modern age. Unscripted and often off-topic, he nevertheless appears authentic and different – a major difference from the average career politician.

As a salesman, he understands that his political brand – “Trump” – has become a cultural phenomenon that has penetrated deep into the American psyche. He is seeking to use that influence to assert his control over the GOP in Congress as well as the members of his incoming cabinet from whom he expects absolute and total loyalty.

This is a different use of presidential power from that of Joe Biden and a new experiment in American governance that may inspire other conservative leaders around the world to embrace a more robust approach to government – one that may tests the boundaries of democracy in new and unpredictable ways.

Perhaps the most defining feature on display this week about Trump’s approach to the presidency is that his conception of America’s historical mission is genuinely game-changing. It differs from that of all the presidents of the modern era who preceded him.

Rather than providing the benevolent economic and foreign policy leadership that countries in the Western world have come to accept – and even take for granted – Trump is on a crusade to put America First.

Donald Trump addresses business leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Picture: AFP.

Profound and far-reaching ramifications will arise from this switch in America’s historical mission, with the US already pursuing new tariffs – including against Canada, Mexico and China – and withdrawing from the World Health Organisation and Paris Climate Accord.

The value of security alliances that helped underpin the global order since World War Two are now being openly questioned, and demands are being made by Washington of other smaller nations aligned to America – some of which are reasonable and some not.

Such demands range from increasing defence spending – including up to 5 per cent of GDP for NATO members in Europe – to Denmark handing over the territory of Greenland or Canada merging with the US as the 51st State. There is no reason to believe Trump is not serious on all these fronts.

It is too early to know how the world will respond to the new Trumpian model. Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky this week questioned whether the US President even saw NATO as necessary or respected EU institutions – suggesting he could simply strike his own deals with the major players in world affairs.

“It’s not clear whether Europe will even have a seat at the table when the war against our country ends,” he said. “Will President Trump listen to Europe, or will he negotiate with Russia and China without Europe?”

Trump’s defeat of Joe Biden in November means his America First approach to the world may yet endure beyond the expiration of his second presidential term – another reason to believe, as Musk said earlier this week, that his November victory was a “fork in the road of human civilisation.”