Trump plays first hand on Putin

Donald Trump’s unexpectedly forceful warning to Vladimir Putin, on his second day back in the White House, to “Settle now, and STOP this ridiculous War (in Ukraine)”, sends a powerful message, the significance of which should elude neither Moscow nor Kyiv and its Western allies.

Failure to “make a ‘deal’, and soon”, Mr Trump wrote on his Truth Social website, would leave him with no other choice but to put “high levels of Taxes, Tariffs and Sanctions” on anything sold by Russia to the US, and various other participating countries. “Let’s get this war, which never would have started if I were President, over with! We can do it the easy, or the hard way – and the easy way is always better. It’s time to ‘MAKE A DEAL.’ NO MORE LIVES SHOULD BE LOST!!!” he posted. “I’m not looking to hurt Russia. I love the Russian people and always had a good relationship with President Putin.”

Mr Trump’s warning clearly falls well short of the unrealistic promise he made repeatedly during the election, that when back in the White House he would have the Ukraine war “done” in 24 hours. But it does show that the omission of any reference to Ukraine in his main inauguration address on Tuesday does not mean he has forgotten about it and that he remains firmly committed to jacking up the pressure needed to reach a deal.

The significance of Mr Trump’s intervention can probably not be overstated, given the widespread pre-inauguration speculation on Mr Trump’s friendship with Putin, the new President’s isolationist tendencies, and unwillingness to get the US involved in more wars would lead his administration to abandon Kyiv.

That could still happen. But it should be immensely reassuring to Kyiv and its allies across the democratic world that at this stage of his new term Mr Trump is talking tough to Putin.

Ukraine is one of the most complex and difficult issues facing Mr Trump. A victory for Russia would also be a victory for Putin’s close, “no limits” strategic alliance with Chinese leader Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party’s aims to not just invade and take over Taiwan but dominate our Indo-Pacific region. Mr Trump’s strong “do a deal or suffer the consequences” warning to Putin demands unequivocal, active support from all the Western allies – including Australia. The world’s democracies too must leave the Russian tyrant in no doubt that things are “only going to get worse” for him if he refuses to “settle now and STOP this ridiculous war”.