The clock is now ticking for Hamas over the Gaza ceasefire deal, and as Donald Trump put it, “they want to play tough guy, we’ll see how tough they are”.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s unsurprising decision to embrace Trump’s deadline for the release of more Israeli hostages or face renewed war in Gaza has effectively called Hamas’s bluff.
Through its own foolishness, the terrorist group has placed itself in a no-win situation with its reckless threat to delay the release of more hostages “until further notice”.
Hamas now faces a grim choice. If it chooses to cave in on its threat to delay the release of any more hostages – in breach of the ceasefire agreement – then it loses face and looks as if it is succumbing to the threats of both Trump and Netanyahu.
Yet if it carries out its threat and does not release any more hostages by the deadline of noon on Saturday (4am Sunday AEDT), then there is no doubt Netanyahu will resume the war.
This would be a tragedy for the remaining hostages because it may well guarantee their deaths, and also for the civilians of Gaza who will face another round of death and destruction because of the indifference of their Hamas rulers to their fate. Yet war appears increasingly inevitable.
Hamas is scheduled, under the first stage of the ceasefire agreement, to release three more live hostages each weekend for the next three weeks in addition to the bodies of eight dead hostages.
Even if Hamas does decide to back down and release hostages, it is unlikely to release any more than the three hostages this weekend, which are required under the agreement schedule.
This may not be enough for Netanyahu. Trump has insisted that Hamas release all of its 73 remaining hostages immediately – 38 of whom are thought to still be alive. Trump argues that the deal to release a handful each week is a bad one. There is zero chance that Hamas will release all the hostages at once, not least because they then lose all negotiating leverage with Israel and the US.
Having listened to Trump, Netanyahu appears to have deliberately left vague the question of how many hostages Hamas must release this weekend in order to avoid renewed war.
“If Hamas does not return our hostages by Saturday noon, the ceasefire will end, and the IDF will resume intense fighting until Hamas is decisively defeated,” Netanyahu said, pointedly avoiding whether “our hostages” means all of them or just the three hostages scheduled to be released next.
If Hamas does relent and releases only the three hostages, it is likely that Netanyahu will hold off from conflict in the hope of securing the other six over the rest of this month.
But he may not wait. All reports suggest that Netanyahu is preparing for war to resume in Gaza, if not this weekend, then next month because, as things stand, there is no prospect of an agreement of the second stage of the ceasefire deal due to start on March 2. This stage calls for a permanent end to the fighting, a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and the release of more hostages and prisoners.
Netanyahu will refuse to agree to a permanent ceasefire in Gaza while Hamas remains in control.
Even though Hamas has been weakened, its theatrical display of uniformed gun-toting soldiers at each hostage release shows the group still wields power in Gaza. That is a red line for Netanyahu and for many Israelis. This ceasefire looks increasingly doomed. The only question is how many more hostages can Israel get out before it collapses.
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