Israel can’t brush off France’s recognition of Palestinian state

While the French President’s pledge won’t force Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to act against its will, it again raises questions about the endgame in Gaza.

Emmanuel Macron, right, with Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas during a meeting on the sidelines of the UN general assembly in New York last September. Picture: Ludovic Marin/AFP/Getty Images

The French statement recognising Palestinian sovereignty has greater weight than those of most of the 150-odd nations that have already taken that step, as a permanent member of the UN security council.

So, too, would recognition by Britain, also a veto-holding permanent member, and all the more so because of its historical role running Palestine under a League of Nations mandate until the foundation of Israel in 1948.

But words alone do not make a state. Russia and China are also permanent members, and acknowledged world powers, yet their recognition of statehood has not brought it into existence.

Israeli leaders would argue there is a direct connection. They say that a country under constant attack can make fewer concessions, not more.

Israel is not brushing away President Emmanuel Macron’s pledge, however, and will be watching the debate in Britain with concern.

Israeli excavators demolish a Palestinian house in the city of Bethlehem in the southern West Bank. Picture: Xinhua/Shutterstock

One of the children suffering life-threatening malnutrition in Gaza. Picture: Ahmed Jihad Ibrahim al-Arini/Anadolu/Getty Images

Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu often shrugs off the pleadings and criticisms of western counterparts with weary contempt.

Not this time. Since the Gaza war began on October 7, 2023, he has been more brittle. “A Palestinian state in these conditions would be a launchpad to annihilate Israel, not to live in peace beside it,” he said.

“Let’s be clear: the Palestinians do not seek a state alongside Israel; they seek a state instead of Israel.”

His supporters would argue that his change in tone is understandable. Israelis believe the concern in the West about the plight of Gaza fails to take into account the extent to which this is the responsibility of Hamas, which has refused to recognise Israel, and the barbaric nature of the October 7 attacks.

However, there is a growing problem for Netanyahu, of which his sensitivity may be a reflection. Despite his opposition to Palestinian statehood in practice, he has always been careful never to disavow it in theory. He could not do that, if logic has anything to do with this conflict, while maintaining the support of the US, for which a “two-state solution” is the stated long-term basis of peace for the region.

However, Israel’s government depends on a coalition with far-right parties which explicitly refuse to consider the policy and have used their places in his cabinet to push for annexation. For hardline religious nationalists, Israel is not Israel without “Judaea and Samaria”, as they call the territory.

Bezalel Smotrich, the finance minister, made the point succinctly: “I thank President Macron for his decision to give us a reason to finally apply sovereignty in the West Bank and throw the idea of establishing an Arab terror state in the heart of the Land of Israel into the dustbin of history once and for all.”

Netanyahu, left, with Bezalel Smotrich, his finance minister, who has spoken of an 'Arab terror state'. Picture: Ronen Zvulun/AFP/Getty Images

Indeed, while Macron was no doubt stirred by Gaza’s images of famine, the final straw may have been a non-binding vote this week in Israel’s parliament to go ahead with annexation. That would make France’s – and Britain’s – support for a two-state solution unviable.

US administrations have no answer to the divergence between their profession of faith in a two-state endgame and their awareness that Israeli policies prevent its coming about.

When America fails to lead, Macron likes to think he can pick up the baton. In reality, he will not and cannot force the Israeli government to do anything it does not want to do.

But he has reminded the world, and maybe Israelis themselves, that the fundamental question remains: if the Palestinians of the West Bank and Gaza do not have a state to look forward to, what future do they have?

The Times