‘Firing hundreds, not thousands’: Iranian attacks expose dwindling strike power

The Islamic Republic’s strike on Israel managed to pierce parts of Israel’s much-vaunted air defence network, but the most explosive thing the regime revealed was how badly it’s losing the long game.

A projectile hits buildings as the Israeli Iron Dome air defence system fires to intercept missiles over Tel Aviv, Israel. Picture: AP Photo/Leo Correa

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The Islamic Republic’s attacks on Israel have exposed the regime’s fractured command structure and dwindling capacity to fight a sustained war, a leading security expert has declared.

In the early hours of Saturday and Sunday, Iran launched what it called Operation True Promise 3, raining missiles on Israel in retaliation for a daring Israeli strike inside Iran that damaged nuclear and military infrastructure.

Iran’s attacks reignited questions about the limits of Israel’s celebrated defence systems, as a small number of ballistic and hypersonic projectiles managed to strike targets in central Israel.

More than 200 ballistic missiles have been launched, and an equal number of drones deployed.

In one of the heaviest strikes, about 40 Iranian missiles targeted the northern port city of Haifa on Sunday and a number of missiles breached air defences and struck Tel Aviv.

Nearby in Bat Yam, a missile destroyed part of an apartment block, killing a nine-year-old girl, a 10-year-old boy, and two elderly women.

The death toll from Iran’s latest strikes has risen to at least 10, while Magen David Adom emergency services reported that more than 200 people had been injured so far.

The Israeli Iron Dome air defence system fires to intercept missiles over Tel Aviv, Israel. Picture: AP Photo/Leo Correa

While the majority of incoming threats were intercepted, several missiles penetrated the Israeli defensive shield and hit sites, including the Kirya area of Tel Aviv, and caused visible damage in Haifa and other areas.

But Strategic Analysis Australia founder Michael Shoebridge said the limited number of missiles that had got through was not an indication of Iranian superiority – but quite the opposite.

“Any air and missile defence system is going to be porous,” Mr Shoebridge told The Australian.

“If you fire enough things for long enough, some will get through. But Iran isn’t firing thousands of missiles – it’s hundreds – and their success rate remains incredibly low.”

Mr Shoebridge said the Israeli defence systems, bolstered by American support and technology, continued to perform with remarkable effectiveness.

Strategic Analysis Australia founder Michael Shoebridge. Picture: Supplied

Systems such as the Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and the Arrow interceptor were tested by waves of ballistic missiles and drones, and most were neutralised before reaching their targets.

“Even hypersonic missiles have been successfully intercepted by the US Patriot system and Israeli Arrow systems (that) are designed for that purpose,” he said.

The few missiles that have hit civilian areas were more likely a function of scale than technological superiority, he added.

Mr Shoebridge pointed to the impact of Israel’s aggressive pre-emptive operations on Iranian soil, which he said had significantly degraded Tehran’s missile production capacity and command structure.

“Israeli strikes have really damaged Iran’s military capability, including their ability to produce and launch missiles,” he said. “That’s why Iran is not launching in the thousands. Their capability is much less than it’s been assessed to be for years, and it’s getting weaker.”

Iran said its latest assault was retaliation for a major Israeli air operation that targeted nuclear and military sites deep within Iranian territory last week, which reportedly killed 80 people and wounded more than 800.

People observe fire and smoke from an Israeli attack on the Shahran oil depot in Tehran, Iran. (Photo by Stringer/Getty Images)

Tehran continues to insist its nuclear ambitions were peaceful, though Israeli officials said the strikes were necessary to prevent Iran from nearing nuclear weapons capability.

Mr Shoebridge warned that Iran’s limited success in penetrating Israeli defences could mask the strategic imbalance between the two.

He noted that while Australia had ruled out a direct military contribution, other allies had signalled readiness to assist.

“The UK is putting assets into the region. The US is already defending Israel. Despite being critical of Netanyahu’s Gaza policy, many of Israel’s partners still view Iranian aggression as a red line,” he said.

Mr Shoebridge also warned that the greatest risk of escalation would come if Iran’s missiles struck US personnel or facilities in the region – which would potentially drag Washington into a broader conflict.

The Iron Dome is Israel’s frontline air defence system, designed to intercept short-range rockets, artillery shells, and mortars aimed at populated areas.

It works by detecting incoming threats with a radar, calculating their trajectory, and launching interceptor missiles only if the projectile is predicted to hit civilian areas or critical infrastructure.

For medium to long-range threats, David’s Sling bridges the gap between the Iron Dome and the Arrow systems, by targeting drones, cruise missiles, and tactical ballistic missiles up to 300km away.