Israel’s Iron Dome on alert, but real danger remains

Some Iranian drones and missiles are expected to break through Israel’s defence shield in the coming days, despite the country’s world-leading multi-layered military infrastructure.

Israel’s Iron Dome air defence system in action

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A number of Iranian drones and missiles are expected to penetrate Israel’s formidable multi-layered Iron Dome defence shield in the coming days, despite the country’s world-leading defensive military infrastructure.

However, leading experts say that even with the possibility of missile infiltrations, Israel will mount a powerful defence to Iran’s retaliation by leveraging its superior military capabilities and the success of a years-long campaign that has systematically degraded Tehran’s regional proxies.

Australian Strategic Policy Institute senior analyst Alex Bristow told The Australian that Israel’s strategic position had strengthened significantly since the October 7 Hamas attacks, allowing it to focus on direct threats from Iran without the added pressure of multi-front proxy attacks.

Dr Bristow said that before the October 7 attacks, Iran had been able to activate a range of proxies – Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and forces in Syria and Yemen – to fire short-range rockets and drones into Israel, which complicated its defence posture.

But following Israeli operations over the past 20 months, the defence challenge for Israel has become more manageable.

“Since October 7, Israel has severely degraded Iran’s regional capabilities,” Dr Bristow said.

“They’ve dismantled much of Hamas’s infrastructure, weakened Hezbollah, and carried out targeted strikes in Syria. That changes the equation. Israel is no longer ­defending on all fronts. They’ve simplified the battlefield.”

Israel’s defence capabilities are among the most advanced and battle-tested in the world, including its missile defence system and its cyber intelligence operations.

People visit the site of the remains of an Iranian missile in the Negev desert near Arad. Picture: AFP

While much of the public focus tends to fall on the Iron Dome, Dr Bristow noted that it was only one layer in a broader, highly co-ordinated system that has proven effective – but is not infallible.

He said some projectiles were expected to penetrate Israeli airspace – as they did in previous Iranian attacks in April and October 2024 – but Israeli officials are believed to prioritise intercepting threats to high-value and densely populated areas, rather than expend costly interceptor missiles on munitions bound for empty fields or military runways.

The US, which has helped intercept Iranian missiles and drones in previous attacks on Israel, said it was not involved in planning this latest operation. That has raised questions about whether Washington will provide similar support if Iran escalates further.

Israel’s Iron Dome intercepts missiles sent by Iran. Picture: Liam Mendes

“There’s uncertainty about how much assistance Israel can expect this time,” Dr Bristow said.

“The US has made clear it doesn’t want to be drawn into a ­direct conflict unless its own forces are targeted.”

In a broader context, Dr Bristow said one of the most fascinating dynamics was how Australia would now position itself in the wake of Israel’s pre-emptive strikes, a move that disrupted the Albanese government’s diplo­matic choreography ahead of the G7 in Canada.

Strategic Analysis Australia founder Michael Shoebridge said while Israel had successfully rebuffed Iranian attacks before, the risk was that if Iran “fired enough drones, some will get through”.

Iranians burn an Israeli flag during a rally in Tehran on October 2, 2024. Picture: AFP

“Iran has enormous arsenals of missiles and drones,” he said.

“It’s about saturation. That’s why the Israeli population is sheltering at the moment, because the Israeli government knows that as comprehensive and effective as their defensive systems are, things are likely to get through.”

He said the US would help to monitor the expected attack by Iran, it would seek not to be ­directly involved in the conflict.

“It’s quite likely, in my view, that there will be quiet co-operation on defence against Iranian missile and drone attacks, but the US doesn’t want to become a party to this conflict, so I don’t think they’ll be involved in any offensive moves against Iran,” he said.

“But that’s different to helping protect Israel from Iranian attack.”

Israel’s defence capabilities were built on a sophisticated, multi-layered system combining cutting-edge missile interception technologies, formidable ground and air forces, naval deterrence, and elite cyber operations.

At the frontline is the Iron Dome, which has intercepted thousands of short-range rockets from Hamas and Hezbollah with more than 90 per cent success since its 2011 deployment.

For medium- to long-range threats, David’s Sling bridges the gap between Iron Dome and the Arrow systems, targeting drones, cruise missiles, and tactical ballistic missiles up to 300km away.

On land, Israel operates one of the Middle East’s most heavily mechanised armies, with more than 3000 tanks, including the advanced Merkava IV, and more than 10,000 armoured personnel carriers.

In the air, the Israeli Air Force fields 460 combat aircraft and more than 80 attack helicopters, supported by refuelling and transport planes, giving it unmatched strike depth.

The fleet includes 168 fighters such as the F-15 Eagles and F-16 Falcons, alongside 227 ground attack jets and 65 attack aircraft.

At the heart of its deterrence doctrine is a small but powerful fleet of German-built Dolphin-class submarines. Israel operates three of these advanced tactical submarines – a variant of Germany’s Type 212 platform – which are widely believed to be capable of carrying nuclear-armed cruise missiles.

Behind the scenes, elite intelligence units like Mossad and Unit 8200 lead cyber operations that pre-empt attacks and track hostile actors.