Donald Trump impeachment: How will it happen and when?
The House votes on Thursday on impeaching Donald Trump, making him potentially history’s first US president to be impeached twice. What happens next?
House Democrats have introduced an article of impeachment against Donald Trump, accusing him of inciting an insurrection, making him potentially the first president in US history to be impeached twice. Is this even possible and what happens next?
What does the article of impeachment say?
The article accuses Mr Trump of inciting an insurrection. It states that he “gravely endangered the security of the United States and its institutions of Government. He threatened the integrity of the democratic system, interfered with the peaceful transition of power, and imperilled a coequal branch of Government. He thereby betrayed his trust as President, to the manifest injury of the people of the United States.
“Wherefore, Donald John Trump, by such conduct, has demonstrated that he will remain a threat to national security, democracy, and the Constitution if allowed to remain in office, and has acted in a manner grossly incompatible with self-governance and the rule of law. “Donald John Trump thus warrants impeachment and trial, removal from office, and disqualification to hold and enjoy any office of honur (sic). trust or profit under the United States.”
Mobile users: Read the Article of Impeachment here
Is Trump really likely to be impeached for a second time?
Yes. Democrats have already got 218 co-sponsors for the article of impeachment, meeting the requirement of a simple majority to impeach Mr Trump in the House.
But Thursday’s vote on impeachment is only the first step in the process and a conviction is far from certain. While a number of Republicans have condemned the president for encouraging his supporters to march on the Capitol and some have called on him to resign, the majority are opposed to impeachment.
Constitutional guidelines allow the House to impeach a person any number of times. But Mr Trump would be the first President in US history to face a second impeachment, after being acquitted in February 2020 of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress.
What happens next?
After Thursday’s House vote, the articles are expected to move immediately to the Senate, where a two-thirds majority would be needed to convict Mr Trump. This means 17 Republicans would have to vote for his impeachment – an unlikely, but not impossible scenario.
Is there time to impeach Trump before the inauguration?
Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has told Republican senators that, as the Senate isn’t due to sit again until January 19 – the day before Joe Biden is inaugurated – a trial could not start before then. (The Senate is due to hold two pro forma sessions next week but it would need all 100 Senators to agree to conduct any business on these days, and therefore the vote of all 100 Senators to start acting on articles of impeachment, Mr McConnell told his party).
This means a trial – presided over by Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts – would not start until the opening days of Joe Biden’s presidency.
However Democrats may wait until after Mr Biden’s first 100 days in office to impeach: Jim Clyburn, the third-ranking House Democrat, said on Monday the House might vote to impeach but then wait weeks or months before sending an article to the Senate.
Can Trump still be impeached when he’s no longer president?
There is no precedent for a president being impeached or convicted after leaving office. Richard Nixon resigned rather than go through impeachment over Watergate, and the matter was dropped once he was out of office.
The Constitution states that the President “shall be removed from office on impeachment for, and conviction of, treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanours.” Constitutional experts and lawyers are already arguing whether this applies to former presidents; Alan Dershowitz, one of Mr. Trump’s lawyers in his first impeachment trial, has said this constitutional point would be part of Mr Trump’s defence in a second impeachment.
If Mr Trump is convicted after he leaves office, the conviction would be largely symbolic; he couldn’t be removed from an office he didn’t hold.
However the Senate could immediately hold a follow-up vote, subject only to a simple majority, to ban Mr Trump from ever seeking office again. Those are the only punishments the Senate can consider in the case of a conviction.
Are Donald Trump’s actions impeachable?
Most US commentators including The Wall Street Journal argue that Mr Trump’s actions on the day of the Capitol riots crossed a constitutional line and are impeachable.
The WSJ wrote: “The leader of the executive branch incited a crowd to march on the legislative branch. The express goal was to demand that Congress and Vice President Mike Pence reject electors from enough states to deny Mr. Biden an Electoral College victory. When some in the crowd turned violent and occupied the Capitol, the President cavilled and declined for far too long to call them off. When he did speak, he hedged his plea with election complaint.
“This was an assault on the constitutional process of transferring power after an election. It was also an assault on the legislature from an executive sworn to uphold the laws of the United States. This goes beyond merely refusing to concede defeat.”
So Trump should be impeached?
Many US politicians, including some Republicans, believe a trial is justified in both condemning Mr. Trump’s actions last week and potentially banning him from holding office again.
An Ipsos/ABC poll this week found the majority of Americans - 56 per cent - believe Mr Trump should be removed from office before his term ends. A majority also blame him for the Capitol riots.
However it is also widely argued that despite his outrageous behaviour, impeachment would only make a martyr of a fatally damaged president and cause further harm in a bitterly divided country. As Cameron Stewart wrote in The Australian, an impeachment process may actually help revive rather than hurt Mr Trump’s standing by turning him into a victim in the eyes of his supporters.
An impeachment trial would also overshadow Mr Biden’s first weeks as president and undermine his hopes for healing the country and achieving bipartisan co-operation in Washington.
What are the alternatives?
Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats are pushing for Mike Pence to invoke the 25th Amendment and remove Mr Trump from office. Mr Pence is reluctant to use his constitutional powers to do so but the House will vote on a resolution to this effect on Wednesday (AEDT.), with Democrats pushing Republicans to join them in voting for it.
Most agree however that the best road forward would be for Mr Trump to resign and hand over power to the Vice-President. This would have the advantage of protecting the dignity of his office and prevent claims that he has become a victim. It would also mean Mr Biden could press on with his own agenda without the focus remaining on Mr Trump.
The President has reportedly told his inner circle that he has no intention of resigning.
Any other way Trump could be forced out?
A scenario that would prevent Donald Trump from holding office again without impeachment is being discussed after Nancy Pelosi on Sunday wrote to her caucus asking their thoughts on
barring Mr. Trump from future office under the Constitution’s little known 14th Amendment.
Section Three of the 14th Amendment, which dates back to 1866, bars anyone from holding office who has “engaged in insurrection or rebellion” against the United States.
In the impeachment article now before the House, Mr Trump’s action is called “incitement to insurrection,” so it could be argued that he could be barred from holding office again regardless of impeachment.
However the WSJ points out that as no court has as yet convicted Mr Trump of insurrection, Mrs Pelosi would be asking Congress to do that on its own. “She’d essentially be hijacking the 14th Amendment to create another path to bar Mr. Trump from running again, and perhaps with a mere majority vote, not two-thirds as required by the Impeachment Clause. That would violate the Constitution in the name of defending it.” the WSJ wrote.
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