Why Democrats should think twice before impeaching Donald Trump
No reasons for impeaching Trump justify launching such a divisive spectacle at the same time as Joe Biden is sworn in.
The Democrats should think twice before they rush headlong into a second impeachment process against Donald Trump.
Trump’s reputation is in free fall since last week’s Capitol riots and the desire to try to hold the President to account for his actions is palpable among Democrats and even a handful of Republicans.
Around 195 House Democrats have now co-sponsored articles of impeachment against the president.
Speaker Nancy Pelosi says there will be moved in the House of Representatives on Tuesday AEDT a motion calling for the cabinet to remove Trump as unfit for office under the constitution’s 25th amendment.
If Vice-President Mike Pence does not agree, and he’s not likely to, the House would then introduce the articles of impeachment.
There is no doubt that Trump’s behaviour in inciting his supporters to march upon the Capitol and “‘fight like hell” was reprehensible and it qualifies for an impeachment far more than the Ukraine controversy did.
But the question that Democrats need to ask themselves is what a second impeachment of Trump would achieve and at what cost, given that he has only just over a week left in office.
Democrats argue that if Trump was convicted by the Senate he would be unable to run for president in 2024 which makes the process worthwhile.
They are also attracted by the idea of having Trump impeached by the House for the second time, making him the only president in history to be impeached twice.
But neither of these reasons justify launching such a divisive and distracting spectacle at the same time as Joe Biden is sworn in as president and is trying to settle in his new administration.
Even if the House Democrats delayed for a few months sending articles of impeachment to the Senate, it would still be distracting for a new president.
Any impeachment of Trump would likely succeed in the Democrat-led House, but it would almost certainly fail in the subsequent Senate trial which requires a two-thirds majority to convict.
The means that Democrats would need to persuade 17 Republican Senators in the new 50-50 Senate to convict Trump. So far, just two Republican Senators have called for Trump’s resignation and while many Republicans are furious at Trump’s role in the Capitol riots, it is highly unlikely that 17 would vote against him.
Therefore the impeachment process would not result in banning Trump from running in 2024.
An impeachment process may actually help revive rather than hurt Trump’s standing by turning him into a victim in the eyes of his supporters.
The potential cost of impeachment proceedings for Biden is substantial. He has said he will be a president who reaches across the aisle and works with, rather than against the Republicans.
A divisive and heated impeachment process would surely undermine his hopes of a new era of bipartisan co-operation in Washington. The bottom line is that a second impeachment of Trump would serve no practical purpose and would come at a cost.
The reality is that Trump has done more damage to himself that the Democrats could ever inflect. He is now unlikely to run in 2024 because his legacy has been so badly tarnished.
The Democrats would serve themselves and the country better by looking to the future rather than looking backward to settle old scores with a president who will leave office in ignominy anyway.
More Coverage
Beijing bites back with big tariff hit on US
China slugged the US with 15pc tariffs on coal and liquefied natural gas just hours after Canada and Mexico won a 30-day reprieve from Donald Trump’s 25pc tariffs.
Musk tightens his grip on wheels of power
The speed and scope of Elon Musk’s work has been nothing short of stunning. In the three weeks, the world’s richest man has created an alternative power structure.