Defence expert warns $368bn AUKUS submarines will be over budget, late, obsolete

A US defence expert has issued a withering assessment of Australia’s $368bn nuclear-powered submarines deal.

The Virginia-class submarine USS Oregon. Picture: Supplied

A foremost expert in US defence procurement says Australia’s nuclear-powered submarines will likely cost “much” more than $368bn estimated by the government, fail to arrive on time, and could be obsolete by the 2040s.

Bill Greenwalt, a former a deputy undersecretary of defence in the George W Bush administration, told The Australian the cost estimates provided by the government were “probably fictional” and the US and Australia were “taking a bet” the US could fix chronic industrial bottlenecks in is shipyards “in the next five or six years” which was “a real risk”.

“$368bn [the maximum estimate for the new AUKUS submarine program provided by the Albanese government] is the bargain basement price and be ready for potential greater sticker shock as the years go by,” he told The Australian on Wednesday (Thursday AEDT), explaining defence projects that ran to budget were a “rarity” and defence contracting was a “gravy train”.

“The history of large weapons acquisition program is that they end up costing much more and are usually not delivered on time,” he added, pointing out the US submarine production had averaged 1.2 new boats a year in recent years, behind the Pentagon’s target of two.

His comments came days after Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, UK prime minister Rishi Sunak and President Joe Biden in San Diego on Monday unveiled the ‘optimal path’ for Australia to acquire eight nuclear powered submarines, including cost estimates, as part of the AUKUS security pact.

The plan included the purchase of between three and five used Virginia class submarines in the early 2030s to plug a ‘capability gap’ as the Collins class submarines were retired, ahead of the construction of eight new nuclear-powered submarines in Australia based on a UK design, for deployment in the 2040s.

Mr Greenwalt, now a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, said in an interview that obsolescence of the US submarine program was “one of the biggest things that kept the navy up at night”

“Ubiquitous surveillance, deployed sensors in space, would take away their advantage, and the ocean becomes less opaque; it’s a huge potential risks; are these going to be the battleships of the 21st century?”.

A former staffer for the late Republican senator John McCain, Mr Greenwalt said the US submarine production capability was “incredibly fragile” and Congress, which will need to approve the sale of Virginia class submarines to Australia, could ultimately baulk at the reduction in US forces required to support Australia’s program.

“Congress is going to be saying: We can‘t even replace our own submarine capacity at the present time. How are we going to be able to implement this,” he said.

“The Los Angeles class submarines are being retired at such a rate that they‘re not being replaced one to one by the Virginia class,” he added referring to an older US submarine class that is out of production.

His remarks will follow scathing criticism of the AUKUS submarine deal by former Prime Minister Paul Keating, who said the AUKUS undertaking was too expensive and ineffective.

Mr Greenwalt, who supports AUKUS, said he was disappointed the announced details this week didn’t include a greater focus on having new submarines “in the water in time to actually be relevant in the years of potentially maximum danger with China – from 2025 to 2028”.

Mr Greenwalt said President Regan offered Canada nuclear-powered submarines in the 1980s, but the US navy pushed back on sharing the technology and ultimately the Canadians decided they couldn’t afford them.

“You‘ll end up with the same type of issues that Canada had to deal with when they when this was dropped in their lap”.