AUKUS under attack for ‘Frankenstein’ submarine plan

Australia should buy a single fleet of US Virginia-class submarines rather than the high-risk option of two classes of nuclear vessels, a former White House official says.

The Virginia-class USS North Dakota submarine. Picture: Reuters / US Navy

Australia should buy a single fleet of US Virginia-class submarines rather than take the high-risk option of having two separate classes of nuclear submarines, according to a former Pentagon and White House official.

The criticism of the AUKUS plan by former Bush administration official Zack Cooper has been backed by some Australian military experts, who believe the plan to acquire two different submarine classes is overly risky, expensive and inefficient.

Under the AUKUS plan unveiled this week, Australia will buy three to five Virginia-class submarines from the US in the 2030s before building a different, British-designed AUKUS submarine in Adelaide in the 2040s. This means the Navy will have to operate, sustain and crew two classes of nuclear submarines for about 20 years from the 2040s to the 2060s.

Mr Cooper, who served on the Bush White House National Security Council and in the Pentagon, described the two-submarine proposal as a “Frankenstein approach” that would “dramatically increase the endeavour’s cost and complexity”.

“This leads to questions about why Australia chose not to field a single fleet of Virginia-class submarines,” Mr Cooper said. “At the end of the day, I think it would be far simpler to expand the production line and buy 10 Virginia-class subs between now and 2043 than buy a mix of two subs.”

He conceded that Adelaide “wouldn’t be happy” with that plan, but stressed that the real ­priority for Australia was to get a nuclear fleet as quickly as possible.

Prominent strategic expert Marcus Hellyer, from Strategic Analysis Australia, said it was a fair question to ask why the government did not plan to simply continue buying the formidable Virginia-class submarines from the US.

“That is the obvious question – when you have brought in the Virginia-class submarines and you have set up the infrastructure, the supply chains, everything, why would you change course and build our own (AUKUS) submarine?” he said. “No country wants to operate two classes of SSNs if you can avoid it and yet that’s the path we are going down.”

Mr Hellyer said the previous chief of Navy had warned that the Navy could not operate two separate classes of conventional submarines and yet now the plan was to operate two classes of far larger and more sophisticated nuclear submarines. “It seems odd that you would go to the Americans and then switch to the UK,” he said. “It is a huge cost multiplier.”

Former submariner and ex-senator Rex Patrick also questioned why the AUKUS plan involved two different submarines.

“Defence has a knack of choosing the most difficult pathway to acquire a full military capability,” he said. “The (AUKUS) plan sees Australia acquiring proven and highly capable Virginia-class submarines, but then jumping off that safe pathway to a high-risk program involving a country that has a track record of being late, over budget on its past and current submarine-design programs.

“Even if everything went miraculously well with the British-led AUKUS submarines, we’d see our relatively small navy operating three types of submarines, something Defence is on record seeking to avoid.”

Mr Patrick said Australia should purchase three Virginia-class submarines from the US and then build the remainder of the Australian fleet in Adelaide. “That’s of benefit to us, and to the US, who would enjoy a surge build capability through us,” he said.

Australia is investing almost $3bn in the next four years into US shipbuilding to help speed up the production of the Virginia-class submarines. The first Virginia-class boat is expected to arrive in 2033, with the next two coming in 2036 and 2039. The Virginia-class is expected to be built in the US until 2043, with new submarines built then having a service life until 2076.

Under the AUKUS plan, the first of the new AUKUS submarines would be completed in Adelaide in 2042 with seven more being built at three-year intervals.