China’s Tasman Sea manoeuvres alarm US, but Australia keeps calm and carries on
The Republican chair of the Senate foreign relations subcommittee on East Asia, the Pacific and international cybersecurity policy, Pete Ricketts, as well as the ranking member, Chris Coons, expressed deep alarm at China’s conduct. Both men said on Tuesday local time that Beijing was seeking to “intimidate” Australia.
But they also went a step further, arguing this was part of Beijing’s deliberate strategy of using “grey zone” tactics to assert regional dominance and succeed the US as the pre-eminent power in the Indo-Pacific.
“They’re hoping they can salami slice their way into asserting control of the region and forcing the United States out,” Coons said. “If we don’t change course, if we continue to dole out concessions to China and look the other way as they change facts on the ground, we may well lose the fight for the century.”
Ricketts said that “the greatest general never fights a battle – he defeats his enemy beforehand; ultimately, communist China would rather act as a python, solely squeezing countries … rather than acting as a cobra (and) striking quickly”.
These frank remarks are in stark contrast to the public comments of the Albanese government, which played down the Chinese actions at the time, providing assurances that Beijing was complying with international law but Australia would have appreciated being given more notice.
Of course, the Albanese government is acutely aware of China’s strategic objectives and shares the alarm at Beijing’s tactics held by the US congressmen. The government has simply chosen not to hold an honest public conversation with the Australian people about what is really going on by putting the Chinese actions in their proper context. It has opted to prioritise the restoration of the trade relationship, revive contact at the leader-to-leader level and shift away from confrontational rhetoric – one of its key criticisms of the former Coalition government
Yet despite this, Labor has been left with no choice but to take steps to counter Chinese expansionism in the region. Witness the mutual defence treaty finalised with Papua New Guinea that will prevent Beijing from signing its own security agreement with Port Moresby. Albanese has also chosen to stand by the AUKUS pact, which was always intended as an instrument to deter China.
Yet there are downsides to the way Labor has managed the Beijing relationship that may become more problematic. First, it risks minimising the China threat in its public messaging to the Australian public at a time when US conflict with Beijing is becoming more possible. Second, it leaves itself open to accusations the stabilisation of relations with Beijing came with a major concession – limiting public criticism. Third, it risks casting doubt in the US about where Australia stands in the great power contest between Washington and Beijing.
This last point is critical ahead of Albanese’s visit to Washington given the recent interest from the Under Secretary of War for Policy, Elbridge Colby, about Australia’s willingness to participate in contingency planning for a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
Republican senator John Cornyn said on Tuesday he was uncertain whether Australia “might join us” in any “collective defence of Taiwan that the United States was involved in”.
Finally, the most glaring problem for Albanese is that Australia can clearly do more to help the US counter China and enhance deterrence – most obviously by lifting its own defence spending. This is the key request made by the US, and a rejection of this demand will be deeply felt in Washington.
America has been too late in recognising and responding to the challenge posed by China, but its focus is now being concentrated more keenly on Beijing. Any sense that Australia is hedging its bets will inject new tensions into the alliance at a time when US/China relations have entered a volatile phase.
China’s live fire exercises in the Tasman Sea and unprecedented circumnavigation of Australia earlier this year appear to have raised deeper concerns among Republicans and Democrats in the US congress than inside the Australian Labor Party.