World now in ‘grey-zone warfare’, warns Andrew Shearer

Andrew Shearer says authoritarian powers are waging a new form of warfare against democracies, exploiting AI and cyber attacks to avoid direct conflict.

Office of ­National Intelligence director-general Andrew Shearer. Picture: Colin Murty

The nation’s top intelligence chief has sharpened warnings about a “new axis of authorit­arian powers” that rivals the world’s democracies and says this strategic contest is increasingly fought in grey-zone warfare – the “space between genuine peace and overt war”.

Office of National Intelligence director-general Andrew Shearer also said a military ­parade in Beijing last month – ­attended by national leaders and dignitaries including former Labor Victorian premier Daniel Andrews – was a “clear message” that China’s military capabilities and intent were “advancing in step”. It comes fresh on the heels of a similar warning Mr Shearer issued on Monday about a ­fraying of past norms and a ­shifting of military balance against the West.

Mr Shearer said Australia’s adversaries were “already ­exploiting” artificial intelligence, which had “advanced more quickly than many anticipated”. He pointed to a series of international conflicts and shocks in the recent past: the Iranian-backed attack on Israel by Hamas, the latest India-Pakistan skirmish, the Cambodian–Thai border crisis earlier this year, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the North Korean nuclear program and Chinese military activity in the South China Sea.

Mr Shearer told Senate estimates this highlighted how grey-zone warfare – “the space between genuine peace and overt war” – was now “central to strategic rivalry in the global struggle between a new axis of authoritarian powers and democracies”.

“Cyber attacks, political interference, disinformation, economic coercion and the use of paramilitary and proxy forces to pressure and intimidate are now routine,” he said.

“These methods exploit our openness and restraint. They are hard to counter, and the objectives are clear. To weaken ­cohesion within democracies such as Australia, and between allies, and to make the world safer for authoritarianism. For our adversaries, day-to-day coercion is relatively cost-free and effective.

“Applying sustained pressure imposes a cumulative toll on our security, economy and social stability, without incurring the much greater cost of conflict.

“They seek to undermine our resilience and ultimately to break our resolve.”

He said there were also more overt shows of power. “Beijing’s September military parade showcased nuclear, hypersonic and unmanned systems,” he said.

“It had a clear message that China’s military capabilities and strategic intent are advancing in step, and its ability to project force at range and sustain it is growing.

“Rules and norms that once buttressed international prosperity and security are fraying, and multilateral institutions that have often served our interests are now increasingly deadlocked and in some cases hollowed out as a result of great power rivalry.”

On Tuesday, experts welcomed Mr Shearer’s warnings from Monday.

The Australian Strategic ­Policy Institute’s executive ­director, Justin Bassi, said Mr Shearer’s warning was an “open window into the closed world” of intelligence.

He said it showed the intelligence community was raising the alarm about “greater dangers and threats facing Australia and our region since the end of World War II”.

Former home affairs secretary Michael Pezzullo said that “China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea have rendered the post-war security order defunct”.

Mr Shearer on Monday told the Australia-Japan business conference in Perth that China and other authoritarian regimes were seeking to “distract and ­divide us … and chip away at our resolve”.

Mr Bassi, responding to Mr Shearer’s warning, said it needed “to be understood given how perilous periods of the Cold War were, including the risk of nuclear war”.

“It is noteworthy that Shearer, the head of (the Australian Security and Intelligence Organisation) Mike Burgess and the Prime Minister have all said in recent times that authoritarian regimes are seeking to undermine our interests including by trying to ‘distract and divide us’ through activities such as foreign interference, corruption, sabotage and online campaigns.

“Government and intelligence community openness to increasing public awareness is part of the strategy to increase national resilience both to avoid conflict but also to be prepared for it.”

Mr Pezzullo said Mr Shearer was “understandably cautious” in public statements.

“His remarks are silent on the underlying drivers of the deterioration of the global security environment,” he said.

“Historians will judge the period from the mid-2000s to now as being marked by the rise of authoritarian powers which saw their chance to advance their strategic, political, and territorial objectives.”