‘Martial law’: Asia’s ageing oligarchs trade insults as 100,000 flee fighting

Thailand has declared martial law following the spectacular and deadly breakdown of a three-decade bromance ­between the two wealthy former leaders, Cambodia’s Hun Sen and Thailand’s Thaksin Shinawatra, is still a mystery. Here are some explanations.

Thailand’s former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra with daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra. Picture: AFP

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As Thailand declared martial law, more than 100,000 civilians fled a second day of artillery ­clashes along the Thai-Cambodia border on Friday and world leaders called for an immediate ceasefire, the two ageing Asian oligarchs behind their countries’ latest deadly clashes took to social media to trash-talk the other.

“Many countries are concerned about the conflict … offering to help mediate,” wrote former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, 75, who is believed to be the power behind Thailand’s current government.

“I thanked everyone but said I’d like to ask for some time. Because we probably need to let the Thai military do their duty to teach Hun Sen a lesson about his cunning ways first.”

On Friday evening, a Thailand military border commander declared martial law in eight districts on the frontier with Cambodia, citing “Cambodia’s use of force to enter Thai territory”.

Across the border, along which at least 14 Thai civilians, one Cambodian and a Thai soldier have been killed since Thursday in a surprise escalation of a decades-old territorial dispute, Cambodian strongman and former prime minister Hun Sen, whose son succeeded him in 2023, fired back.

“I am not surprised by Thaksin’s attitude toward me, because he has even betrayed the Thai King, as well as members of his own party,” he wrote on social media, referring to fresh lese ­majeste charges against the Thai telco billionaire. “Now under the pretext of taking revenge on Hun Sen, he is resorting to war, the ultimate consequence of which will be the suffering of the people.”

Cambodia’s former prime minister Hun Sen. Picture: AP

No one seems to know what is behind the spectacular eruption of a three-decade bromance ­between the two wealthy former leaders, though there has been plenty of speculation.

Some say Hun Sen, 72, believes his PM son Hun Manet needs a war to burnish his nationalist credentials, or that the Thai military wants a pretext to oust another Thaksin-led government.

Others that it relates to Thaksin’s push to legalise casinos in Thailand, a threat to Cambodia’s border gambling towns that have allegedly enriched the Hun family. Or that it stems from Thailand’s recent crackdown on the multi-billion dollar criminal online scam compounds – the subject of an extensive investigation by The Australian – which flourish across its borders in both Myanmar and Cambodia, and ­allegedly fuel the ruling Cam­bodian People Party’s patronage machine.

All are plausible, though veteran Thai analyst Phil Robertson says such theories underestimate the nationalist sentiment and anger over a territorial dispute that has simmered, and occasionally boiled over into conflict, since at least the 1950s.

Royal Thai Army soldiers are pictured on armoured vehicles on a road in Chachoengsao province on Thursday. Thailand launched air strikes on Cambodian military targets on July 24 as Cambodia fired rockets and artillery, killing at least 11 civilians, in a dramatic escalation of a long-running border row between the two neighbours. Picture: Lillian Suwanrumpha / AFP

Video footage image posted on Facebook by Chatchak Ratsamikaeo shows smoke billowing from the roof of a convenience store attached to a petrol station in Sisaket province after it was hit by a rocket strike from Cambodia. Picture via AF

The latest flashpoint was triggered in late May when a Cambodian soldier died in clashes between Thai and Cambodian forces at a long-disputed area of the shared border close to the disputed Buddhist Preah Vihear Temple.

A fortnight later, the now-suspended Thai PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Thaksin’s youngest daughter, attempted to defuse the tensions in a deferential phone call with Hun Sen, whom she called “Uncle”.

But a leaked recording of that call – in which she is heard criticising a Thai military commander and telling Hun Sen “if there’s anything you want, just let me know and I’ll take care of it” – sparked outrage and demands for her suspension, which was duly delivered by the country’s pro-military constitutional court.

Paetongtarn now faces an investigation and potential charges of ethics violations that most ­believe will result in her dismissal.

With the Thaksins – the historical political enemies of the Thai military and royalist establishment – once again cornered, there seems little reason for the Thai military to continue hostilities, says Zachary Abuza, a Southeast Asia analyst and professor at the Washington-based National War College.

“Paetongtarn is done. She will never be PM again and, at the same time, they have really put Thaksin in a box (with fresh lese majeste charges) so I don’t see what the Thai side gains from ­escalating the conflict,” he told The Australian.

Likewise, Hun Madet had probably wrung as much political gain as he could from the border conflict given the far weaker Cambodian military would only lose from a protracted conflict.

Thailand deployed F-16s on Thursday in response to Cambodia firing notoriously indiscriminate Russian BM-21 missiles across the border, one of which landed on a 7/11 convenience store. Both sides claim the other fired first.

Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Manet. Picture: AFP

Thailand has also accused Cambodia – for decades a global leader in the fight against landmines – of planting mines along the border that have since injured at least five Thai soldiers. With the countries now hurtling towards full-blown war, DFAT has urged Australians to reconsider travel to either side of the border.

The US has also called for an “immediate cessation of hostilities, protection of civilians and a peaceful resolution”. China, too, has said it is “deeply concerned” over the conflict.

Malaysian PM Anwar Ibrahim, the current chair of the ­Association of Southeast Asian Nations, said on Friday he had spoken to both sides and welcomed “positive signals and willingness shown by both Bangkok and Phnom Penh to consider this path forward”.

Yet a protracted conflict – at least one that stretches into ­August – is what many now ­expect as both sides blanch at stepping down first.

“This is going to intensify ­before either side gets tired of it,” said Phil Robertson of the Asian Human Rights Labor Advocates.

“Hun Manet is not really ­respected and Hun Sen pretty clearly still wears the big-boy pants in Cambodia.’’