Come with me on a journey to consider what Australia might look like in the year 2038. I have chosen this year for a particular reason.
When considering the question “What might Australia look like 14 years in the future?” I immediately think about what it looked like 14 years ago. Australia and the world have changed profoundly since 2010. The geopolitical boundaries of Europe weren’t being challenged at that time. Australians thought their surging trade with China might lead to the acceptance (perhaps even proliferation) of Western values. By 2010 we had become aware of the contribution that resources and FIFO workers were making to the economy. The term woke was not in everyday usage. We made cars in Melbourne and Adelaide. We were debating the merits of a Big Australia. Cash was still king and no one had heard of a Zoom call.
In the past 14 years Australia has added five million residents. Our strategic position has become more worrisome. We are now aware that our previous views of China were, in some regards, fanciful. Climate change was then, and is still now, present in most official assessments of future thinking by government and business. And looking back, I think the most powerful cultural force that has emerged since 2010 is the popular pursuit of social justice; this movement was not scoped in 2010 as a potential shaper of a future Australia.
By 2038 Australia will most likely have added another six million residents. Melbourne will be the largest city in Australia. Jobs like waiter will have retreated to all but the swishest and most expensive of restaurants. Café sitters will have to make do with QR codes and meals brought by a single server.
But the most powerful social force of the next 14 years will not be today’s social justice movement. It will be the ecosystem that surrounds the ageing of the population.
By 2038 the oldest baby boomer will be 92, the youngest 74. The mid-point of this generation will have passed into the high-care mid-eighties. Never in the history of humanity will such a large proportion of the population have survived into the latter years of old age.
Previous generations tended to die in their sixties and seventies, transferring wealth to the next generation then in their thirties. But a diminished birth rate delivers shallower labour pools, prompting Australians to ramp up the intake of overseas workers.
On the one hand Australia is lauded for the opportunities it provides skilled and unskilled workers. On the other hand we are denounced as an allurer of youthful energy from countries that can ill afford any loss of talent. In some quarters Australia is losing its gloss. We need to bolster relationships lest competitors sidle up to our preferred sources of immigration.
To some extent conflict, injustice and even delusion are all part of the human experience, just as is opportunity, fairness and prosperity. It’s a question of how Australia manages these challenges and opportunities. But I am hopeful that with our resources and alliances, combined with a people that are united, fair-minded and forward looking, we should be able to deliver even better outcomes. It’s a question of learning from past mistakes – looking back in order to see forward.
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