Air of anticipation: RAAF planners look beyond F-35

Even though the RAAF accepted the last of its planned 72 fifth-generation Lockheed Martin F-35A Lightning II fighters in December, planners are already looking to what comes next.

A F-35A Lightning ll during pre-flight checks at RAAF Base Curtin, Western Australia, during Exercise Talisman Sabre 2023. Picture: Department of Defence

Even though the RAAF accepted the last of its planned 72 fifth-generation Lockheed Martin F-35A Lightning II fighters only in December, planners are already looking to what comes next.

During its decades-long development, the F-35 was touted by pundits as the last of the manned fighter aircraft, with the future of air combat to be uncrewed and autonomous systems.

Yet, despite the recent development of autonomous collaborative combat (CCA) aircraft such as Australia’s Boeing MQ-28A Ghost Bat and similar programs in the US, recent events have made it clear that the next generation of Western fighter aircraft will be manned.

Moreover, the RAAF was given insight into what its fighter of the future might look like in March, with a briefing on the multinational Global Combat Aircraft Program (GCAP) and the unveiling of the US Air Force’s Next Generation Air Dominance platform.

At the Australian International Airshow at Avalon in March, Air Vice-Marshal Nicholas Hogan, head of air force capability, revealed that the RAAF had been briefed on the GCAP program, with discussions understood to have also included Australian industrial participation.

“It was an information briefing and we have asked for some more information,” Air Vice-Marshal Hogan said. “But really it was to give us an understanding of how we might have to operate that aircraft, as part of a combined international operation if required.”

The GCAP program is being undertaken by the UK, Italy and Japan and seeks to deliver a so-called “sixth-generation” fighter to supplement the three countries’ F-35s from 2025.

The program came into being in its current form in 2022, when the UK and Italy merged their Tempest Future Combat Air System with Japan’s F-X project.

BAE Systems’ FCAS business development director John ­Stocker said at Avalon that the Tempest would be a “highly advanced” combat aircraft, which combines extended range, internal payload and sensor fusion with low observability.

A concept and assessment phase will conclude later this year, and the first flight of a demonstrator aircraft is expected to follow in 2027.

“We’ve got a very flexible partnering model around the program, so different countries who may be interested could participate at different times and in different ways,” Stocker said.

“We’ll have a very diverse supplier base and it’s quite possible Australian industry could become involved from a supply chain point of view. Should governments wish to develop something broader, that’s clearly for them to drive.”

However, Air Vice-Marshal Hogan warned it was still very early days in the consideration of a sixth-generation fighter for the RAAF.

“It’s exciting, but I think there are a lot of unknowns yet and it wouldn’t be possible to take any options to government at this stage,” he said. “But on paper it’s a nice-looking aircraft.”

In a surprise announcement during the Avalon period, the US Department of the Air Force revealed it had awarded an engineering market and development contract for its Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) platform – which will be known as the F-47 – to Boeing.

“I’m thrilled to announce that, at my direction, the United States Air Force is moving forward with the world’s first sixth-generation fighter jet,” US President Donald Trump said.

“Nothing in the world comes even close to it and it’ll be known as the F-47.”

A developmental aircraft – known colloquially as an “X-plane” – has been flying in collaboration with the Defence Research Projects Agency since 2019.

Boeing, the US defence giant, was awarded the next phase of the contract ahead of Lockheed Martin, which began flying its own X-plane design in 2022.

“For the past five years, the X-planes for this aircraft have been quietly laying the foundation for the F-47 – flying hundreds of hours, testing cutting-edge concepts and proving that we can push the envelope of technology with confidence,” US Air Force Chief of Staff General David Allvin said.

However, far from inviting industrial participation from other nations, President Donald Trump said the US should develop a version of the aircraft for export that only had about 90 per cent of the capability of its own aircraft.

During a presidential visit to Doha in May, Trump also announced a “simple” upgrade to the F-35, to produce a new twin-engine fighter to be known as the F-55, potentially providing RAAF planners with yet another alternative.