Newspoll: voters ready to flush Coalition down the drain

Bill Shorten needs to learn the lessons from Tony Abbott’s failure if, as expected, he becomes prime minister next year. Picture: Ray Strange

Today’s Newspoll, coupled with the electoral rout in Victoria on Saturday, confirms the dire position the Coalition has put itself in.

Down 45-55 per cent on the two-party vote for the second consecutive fortnight, just ahead of the final parliamentary sitting fortnight of the year, Scott Morrison has few options to lift the government’s standing before next year’s federal election.

The bottom line for Coalition troops is that this mess is entirely of their own making. Malcolm Turnbull trailed Labor 49-51 per cent for four consecutive polls before being dumped as PM. The chaos that has ensued that moment of madness has likely solidified the public’s disdain for the mob he left behind.

All the evidence points to a Bob Hawke 1983-style landslide for Bill Shorten and Labor come May next year. The one caveat on that is his poor personal numbers. It could minimise the size of the victory.

While the spin coming from Team Morrison is that his numbers show signs of popularity, which just might lift the Coalition’s sagging support, such nonsense shouldn’t be swallowed. A net satisfaction rating of one point is hardly the definition of popular.

For comparison John Howard ended 11-and-a-half years as PM with a better net satisfaction rating, despite the euphoria surrounding the Kevin07 campaign mounted by Labor and the scare campaign against WorkChoices.

And while Shorten’s personal numbers are poor — with a net satisfaction rating of minus 13 — so were Tony Abbott’s ahead of the 2013 election. At which time he easily disposed of Rudd and a government which had spent more time fighting itself than the opposition.

Personal polling numbers need to be analysed with caution.

The parallel to today is obvious: Abbott won despite his unpopularity because of government chaos. Shorten is likely to win despite his unpopularity too, because of this government’s divisions. It’s the government brand that is in the toilet because of the way it has acted, and the public is more than willing to flush this mob down the drain.

Another important point is that the party polling dominance of the Labor opposition actually feeds poor personal numbers for the opposition leader — because he is engaging in a brutal game of attack. Using each and every media appearance to be negative and remind the public of government dysfunction. In doing so the Coalition’s primary vote remain low (the main goal) but Shorten acts in a way that also suppresses his personal popularity.

Again, such nuance must be understood when analysing the polling data.

It was the same for Abbott when tearing down Julia Gillard and Rudd. Once in government his numbers bounced back and Australians gave even Abbott the benefit of the doubt. But he blew it by continuing to play the role of attack dog rather than Prime Minister once in government.

Shorten, if (or more likely when) he gets his hands on the keys to the Lodge will look to learn from that mistake.

Peter van Onselen is a professor of politics at the University of Western Australia and Griffith University