NSW state election: Liberal Party optimism for federal poll is built on illusion

Scott Morrison at NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian’s election-night function. Picture: Sam Ruttyn

The notion that the NSW election result is anything beyond a morale boost for the federal Coalition is laughable. Almost as laughable as sections of the reactionary Right federally in parliament and in the commentariat, suddenly hailing Gladys Berejiklian’s victory in the Premier State.

How long have we seen these same individuals criticise the NSW division of the Liberal Party because it is factionally dominated by moderates? Claiming that this reality is killing the party and its re-election chances. In fact, in the end it was such reasonableness that prevented Sydney going the way of the bush at this election, only for a reverse set of reasons, enabling victory over Labor.

Herein lies the dilemma for the Coalition. The Nationals need to address hard-right concerns to hold on to the regions, but the tail can’t wag the dog within the Coalition. When answering such concerns, the Liberal Party must hold its ground on everything from energy to climate change to simple reasonableness in coming across as a modern, tolerant organisation. Failing to do so collapses the vote in urban areas Liberals once took for granted.

Victoria saw exactly that happen last November.

It’s not Nationals who are the problem within the Coalition. Giving them more of what they want is a key way the Coalition can hold the bush. It’s the hard Right of the Liberal Party who try to combine with Nationals to turn the proverbial rivers around and dominate Liberal policy settings. That signs a political death warrant in the cities, something NSW Liberals avoided.

Getting back to Gladys, and the reactionaries who told us she’s too dripping wet, as are her team. Remember the claims that NSW Liberals standing up for climate change and renewable energy would sink their re-election chances? The constant mocking of their policy scripts on this front. So much for that. These issues weren’t significant because voters could give the government a tick on that score and move on to other issues, such as economic management and infrastructure.

They can’t do that for the federal Liberals because the hard Right continues to demand an out-of-touch approach to renewables, coal and climate change. Doing so leaves voters shaking their heads and looking elsewhere.

It’s good to see reactionaries now recognise the value of Gladys and her team, and the way they managed to run a strong campaign on the issues where Liberals do well. But they were only able to do that because moderates dominate the party in NSW, making it too hard for the reactionary Right to demand politically poisonous policy.

It also helps that NSW Liberals didn’t knife their most popular leadership option, only to overlook their next most popular because she was a woman, almost installing someone who only 6 per cent of polled voters wanted as Liberal leader. Scott Morrison has inherited that funk, even if he didn’t create it. It’s a stark contrast to the way NSW Liberals have conducted themselves.

Peter van Onselen is a professor in politics at the University of Western Australia and Griffith University