Bush votes deliver a brutal lesson to federal Coalition

PM Scott Morrison arrives to NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian’s Liberal Party function with his wife. Picture: Sam Ruttyn

Scott Morrison can take heart from the NSW state Liberal victory but not much credit. The real import of the win for the Prime Minister is in the brutal lesson meted out to the Coalition from voters in regional areas via conservative independents.

Morrison has to appeal simultaneously to metro-Liberals in the inner city and outer suburbs as well as Nationals’ voters, or former Coalition voters, in the bush.

From his first day as prime minister, Morrison has talked about regional Australia, the drought, strawberry farmers hit by sabotage, the crippled beef industry and unfolding natural disasters hitting rural Australia. But the NSW result demonstrates that disaffection with the Coalition remains entrenched and is worse in Queensland.

The immediate lesson is the Nationals are hurting badly in NSW and it's the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, One Nation and other conservative independents picking up the disenchanted vote, not the ALP or Greens.

Bill Shorten will also be deeply disappointed by this result and faces the clear message from voters in metropolitan Sydney, particularly the crucial outer western suburbs such as Penrith, that they are prepared to stick with the Liberals on the basis of economic management and hope.

For Morrison and Michael McCormack, the shout from Gladys Berejiklian that she “heard the call” from regional voters has to be redoubled at the federal election, now only eight weeks away — on May 11 most likely — because they are not only facing the same ­punishment in NSW as the Nationals but also an even greater threat of disenchantment in Queensland.

The result itself was based on state issues and had few federal policy overtones.

But the political implications of the result are profound: Morrison has had a morale lifter; the Nationals have to make drastic changes to policy and presentation; One Nation, the Shooters and Fishers and Clive Palmer are ready to wreak havoc on the conservatives; Labor’s much vaunted NSW electoral machine looks ill-maintained and lacks readiness (as the Liberal machine does in Victoria); and there are signs the voters are less concerned about the removal of Malcolm Turnbull.

While some of the most explosive issues in regional areas were purely state issues, the impact of drought and a conservative backlash are real dangers for the Coalition federally.

Ironically it was the Nationals who saved Turnbull from defeat in 2016 and now it is the Liberals who will have to work to hold seats to insure against Nationals losses, possibly to independents.

As Nationals leader, McCormack is too “Liberal” and the Nationals success in 2016 was based on Barnaby Joyce being the exact opposite. Morrison is doing what he can to make up for the Nationals’ shortcomings, but the NSW result shows the real danger of the Coalition losing seats in rural areas where it simply can’t afford to lose any.

Morrison has to win a net five seats just to stay in government and any losses mean a Labor win or handing the balance of power to One Nation or Clive Palmer in the House or Senate.

One bright spot for Morrison was that the issue of not having Turnbull as prime minister, something Shorten pounds daily, was neutralised in NSW by Morrison as leader with the biggest group of people in Newspoll saying it wasn’t an issue at all in how they voted.

Another was that the state seat of Penrith was safely held.

Penrith has proved crucial as an indicator for federal polling in the seat of Lindsay.

In 1996, Lindsay fell to John Howard’s incoming Liberals for the first time in its history, in 2007 Kevin Rudd brought it back to the Labor fold, in 2013 Tony Abbott won it as part of his election victory and in 2016 Malcolm Turnbull lost it among his wipeout.

The loss of Penrith in a state by-election in 2010 was used as one reason to remove Rudd as prime minister because of the threat to federal ALP seats in western Sydney.

Now Lindsay, with the forced departure of Labor MP Emma Husar, is one seat Morrison hopes he can win back and is one Labor needs to hold.

If the federal Liberals can hold and win seats in western Sydney and manage to neutralise the independents’ threat nationally, they still have a chance of holding government just like Berejiklian, against the odds and expectations.

The NSW election was about state issues, but the politics have messages for both Morrison and Shorten.