Newspoll: Coalition slides but Scott Morrison gains popularity

Scott Morrison is struggling to win back Coalition voters despite a recovery in his own popularity, according to the latest Newspoll.

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison. Picture: AP

The Morrison government faces a rout of similar magnitude to that experienced by the Victorian Liberals at the weekend’s state election, with the Prime Minister struggling to win back Coalition voters despite a recovery in his own popularity.

An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows the federal Coalition’s primary vote falling for the third poll in a row to a near-record low of 34 per cent, as senior ministers today ­defended claims that Victorian voters at the state poll had taken out their anger on Canberra.

The Coalition now trails Labor on a two-party-preferred split of 45-55 for the second consecutive poll as it heads into the final two weeks of parliament and potentially the last before the next federal election if an early poll is called for March.

The results for the government will reinforce accusations that the dumping of Malcolm Turnbull amid a string of policy disasters and a drubbing in the Wentworth by-election has fed into the Victorian results.

But in a sign that the party is being blamed, rather than its leader, Mr Morrison doubled his lead as preferred prime minister over Bill Shorten over the past fortnight and recorded a significant four-point jump in approval ratings with the national debate dom­inated by terrorism and Labor’s ­renewable energy plan.

The latest result, which ­represents the equivalent loss of 21 seats, mirrors the shock result for the Victorian Liberal Party, with Labor Premier Daniel Andrews returned to a second term in government on a 5 per cent swing and the loss of several blue-ribbon Liberal strongholds in the eastern suburbs of Melbourne.

Of concern to the senior Morrison government insiders is the ­Coalition’s falling primary vote, which is now two points lower than the combined Liberal-Nationals vote recorded in the Victorian state election of 36 per cent.

WEB _ NEWS votes graphic

The poll suggests that core Liberal and Nationals voters have abandoned the Coalition, with votes shifting again to One ­Nation, which recorded a significant two-point bounce to 8 per cent. Labor maintained an unchanged primary vote of 40 per cent, which is the fourth time only in the past 10 years that it has breached the 40 per cent threshold. This reflects an improvement of 5.3 per cent in primary vote support since the previous election, which it only narrowly fell short of winning.

The Coalition’s primary vote is now 8.1 percentage points down on the July 2016 result, with One ­Nation being the direct beneficiary of the Coalition collapse, having recorded just 1.3 per cent at the previous election.

The national vote for the Queensland-based conservative minor party is now just a point shy of the Greens, who remained unchanged on 9 per cent.

After losing ground in the wake of the Wentworth by-election disaster that resulted in the Liberal Party losing the blue-ribbon seat to independent Kerryn Phelps, Mr Morrison has returned to a net positive approval rating — having dipped into negative territory in the past two polls — jumping four points to 43 per cent.

The number of those who disapproved of his performance fell five points to 42 per cent, giving the Prime Minister a net positive satisfaction rating of plus one.

Mr Morrison extended his lead as preferred prime minister to 12 points, lifting four points to 46 per cent, while Mr Shorten went backward two points to 34 per cent. Mr Shorten has led as preferred prime minister in the wake of the August 24 leadership spill. With the Opposition Leader’s approval ratings also lifting two points to 37 per cent, Labor will equally argue that the results ­reflect public support for its energy policy, which was released last Thursday promising subsidies for household solar batteries and ­billions of dollars in taxpayer-funded handouts to large-scale ­renewable energy projects.

The federal Opposition Leader today deliberately avoided joining in the revelry in his home state, with federal Coalition ministers warning that Mr Shorten — whose negative approval ratings have persisted since the election — should not “gloat” over the ­results.