Hope in very short supply on conservative side of politics

Malcolm Turnbull is the man who can’t win, and yet he keeps his job as Prime Minister.

It doesn’t matter where you look, Malcolm Turnbull and the ­Coalition are in desperate straits.

Simon Benson’s report of the analysis of the last three months of Newspolls hits the nail on the head. Not one state provides the Coalition with the one commodity necessary to keep the troops working hard and maintaining morale. After reading Benson’s report, that commodity — hope — must be in very short supply on the conservative side of politics right now. Even where there has been improvement, taking Queensland as the best example, the overall picture is still quite miserable. Queensland is the place where there are a stack of seats held by narrow margins.

While the Coalition may wish to crow about a four-point lift in support over the first quarter of the year, the cold facts are they are still more than seven percentage points behind where they were at the last election.

The likes of Peter Dutton must be earnestly looking over their shoulders as the Labor Opposition comes after him. It is not too difficult to see Labor winning five or six seats in Queensland and the election would be all over. One Nation only polls well in Queensland and its vote appears to be falling in favour of the Coalition.

The situation is even grimmer in Western Australia which has mostly been a black hole for Labor for the past three or four decades. The unprecedented 16 per cent swing against the Liberals at the last state election saw what had become almost the natural party of government reduced to a rump. Mark McGowan wiped the floor with Colin Barnett’s divided, ordinary team. Attorney-General Christian Porter has little hope of staying in parliament.

Morale in the Liberal camp is in poor shape and the conservatives may have trouble finding enough poll workers on the big day.

As Nick Xenophon’s vote disappears in South Australia Labor’s vote surges, so looking for joy at any part of the map is forlorn and futile for conservatives.

NSW and Victoria still looking pretty good federally for Labor so it is hard to imagine anything but a loss for the Coalition whenever the election comes — a big loss at that. With the Newspoll having settled at 53 per cent Labor to 47 per cent for the Coalition for many months now, it would appear most voters have made up their mind.

For that to change, Turnbull would have to try big moves, but he has often demonstrated his unwillingness to take risks. He desperately needs to show policy differences of some note between the two sides — this has been a spectacular failure for him. Renewable energy targets similar to the Opposition just doesn’t work. The tax cuts for business, while worthy policy, will be flat out winning him a vote. Making yourself a small target is supposed to be the role of the Opposition Leader, not the Prime Minister.

Sadly all the conservatives, ­Liberal or National, are thinking small. They all appear ready to hand over the reins to Bill Shorten without much of a fight. This Coalition seems content to lose quietly and meekly disappear.

That is why the man who can’t win, Turnbull, keeps his job as Prime Minister.