PM can dream, but a rude awakening is on its way

Prime Minister Scott Morrison.

• Federal Election 2019 Full Coverage

With just months to go before the federal election, it is not too hard to visualise Scott Morrison lying in bed at night dreaming of the ­secret weapon that could restore his fortunes quickly enough to make him competitive.

Alas, such weaponry does not exist. Bill Shorten will win this election, and win it well. The usual line of attack against Labor’s fitness to govern will fall on deaf ears. While no doubt he will try, it will be well nigh impossible for the PM to simply label Labor as the mob who’ll send us broke.

The first problem if he tries that line is that the Turnbull and Morrison governments have no proud economic record to fall back on.

While I am sick and tired of hearing how the Coalition has created “a million jobs”, I fear I have not heard the last of it. Governments do not create jobs apart from for the public service, but they do create the economic conditions in which employers will take up the risk and hire. Sadly, the economy over these past few years has not been able to provide the hours a couple of million workers need to actually get ahead. ­Instead, way too many Australians  just can’t get the hours they want and under­employment remains a big issue.

What has changed in the minds of voters is their reaction to the word “debt”. It used to be that the party that could restrict the amount of debt carried by governments would be well on the way to winning elections. It’s no longer the case. We’re accustomed to ­increased household debt and seem relatively unfazed when it comes to government debt. Debt has doubled while this government has been at the helm and it is hard to find anybody who gives a rat’s about it.

The Coalition will fund a raft of promises to shower largesse on those who might vote for it. Labor has forsaken those who are least likely to vote for it. Hence self-funded retirees are copping ­another Labor raid on their nest eggs. I sincerely hope this is the last of its kind. These people, who have been fortunate and prudent enough to put substantial sums aside for their later years, should, from this point on, be able to plan with certainty.

With soaring iron ore prices pouring billions into government coffers as I write, the government is fortunate to be there at the right time. But this happy timing is somewhat blunted by the proximity of the election. So the one shot in the locker that the government has left will come in next month’s budget. When you are as far ­behind as Newspoll insists the government is, it’s time to lie back and think of England, as there is a dastardly deed about to be performed upon you about which you can do nothing to avoid.

The biggest negative for Morrison and his Treasurer, Josh Frydenberg, is the stubborn refusal of wages to move in a northerly ­direction. You get disgruntled when your pay packet stays the same and all around the prices of essentials increase. When a voter is already disillusioned and disgruntled, the job of winning back their support is more difficult. An election will be called in about five weeks and time is running out for the Prime Minister. You would imagine that everyone in the government must know that whatever they are doing is failing. It is a grim feeling when you ­realise you are about to be hit by an election tsunami and there’s nothing you can do about it.

Despite all the calls to show no signs of hubris, on the Labor side the natives are restless. Backbenchers know there are a few dead frontbenchers who will be ripe for the picking once this election is behind them. While the government is doing a wonderful impression of a shot duck, the ­opposition is thriving on the prospect of power. This is the heady wine of many on the Labor side who have been activists since their swaddling clothes were removed. To be finally able to grab the levers of power will be the high point of their lives so far. We have yet to see if a change in Canberra will have any great effect on the lives of ordinary Australians.

Meanwhile, the minor parties seem to get fewer and fewer mentions. State by state and federally, the Greens have themselves in a mess. The level of hatred within their ranks is extraordinary. Parties of the far Left have spent much of their histories fighting among themselves. Tragically, all those out there with a genuine concern for the environment have seen their party hijacked by others for whom it’s a third-rate issue.

Pauline Hanson’s One Nation continues to maintain a reasonable vote in her home state but she does not set the world on fire anywhere else. Mark Latham will be elected as a One Nation member of the NSW upper house in eight days’ time and may even drag in a second member with him. That will mean a toehold in NSW for as long as that relationship lasts.

The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party in NSW under Robert Borsak has a pretty solid base and is confident of gains at the expense of the Nationals, whose leader, John Barilaro, has already conceded it will have difficulty hanging on to its territory. The seat of Barwon is the one to watch on election night in NSW.