Is Turnbull prepared for life after 30 Newspolls?

Tony Abbott should expect to have his day when the PM loses 30 straight Newspolls. Picture: Kym Smith

The Boy Scouts motto is “be ­prepared”, which is what Malcolm Turnbull needs to be for the next Newspoll.

It will surely see him register 30 straight defeats to Labor on the two-party vote, emulating Tony Abbott. Leadership speculation will follow. The former PM may well have clocked up more fails, but Turnbull used the 30 fails to justify a leadership challenge in 2015, toppling a PM who hadn’t served two years in the job after a thumping election victory.

What can Turnbull do? He already said he shouldn’t have set the polling benchmark, something his colleagues told him at the time. Turnbull has also sought to clarify that the bigger point he was trying to make at the time was criticism of Abbott’s economic narrative, which we’re told the Coalition has since improved.

But such points were never going to stop people talking about the comparison of two PMs who have fallen on tough times. And you can bet Abbott is living by the Scouts motto, preparing all manner of appearances and commentary for when Newspoll strikes.

Turnbull could call a spill and recontest the leadership to flush out critics. The odds are no one would stand. If Abbott did, he’d barely secure a dozen votes in the partyroom. But if Abbott did ­secure upwards of 20 votes that would mortally wound Turnbull, with a second showdown later in the year almost inevitable.

Calling a spill prevents the empty chair scenario whereby others demand a spill and a vote ensues to see if a majority of the partyroom want a leadership showdown. That’s what damaged Abbott six months before being toppled, when 39 of his colleagues voted for no one instead of him.

Someone would need to stand against Turnbull for a vote to ­follow him deciding to spill the leadership. If Abbott didn’t want to embarrass himself by revealing his small supporter base, a so-called “stalking horse” like Kevin Andrews might contest a spill, like he did in 2009 before Abbott ran in the actual contest.

Andrews is unlikely to do any better than Abbott, which suggests the spill option might be Turnbull’s best way of shutting down critics when Newspoll strikes. But spilling the leadership has never ended well for political leaders, sending a message of ­instability. John Gorton tried it and it brought him undone. It would be a risk. Turnbull is unlikely to choose this option. More likely Team Turnbull will hope to weather the Newspoll storm and simply re-announce that he never should have set such a benchmark, note that there are no challengers for the top job, and claim that polls are a distraction and the government is focused on the bigger issues of “jobs and growth”.

Watch for Turnbull under pressure to publicly call for any challengers to declare themselves, citing the ensuing silence as affirmation of his leadership.

But the 30 poll countdown will be replaced by a count up, with fortnightly tallying of how many polls Turnbull has surpassed Abbott’s 30. One, two, three, the count will continue until the two party vote shifts (unlikely), an election is called early (also unlikely) or Turnbull is challenged.

While the reactionaries who boldly predicted that Turnbull wouldn’t survive 2017 were always going to be proven wrong, there is little doubt that if the polls don’t improve, panic amongst marginal seat MPs will eventually set in.

No challengers right now is no guarantee of no challengers later in the year.

Which is why no strategy to deal with Newspoll shouldn’t be an option for Team Turnbull, ­unless the PM plans to depart at a time of his own choosing later in the year. For example when he turns 64, the same age John Howard nominated for when he would consider his future.

That would avoid a bloody showdown, provide a circuit breaker for the polling malaise and give the Liberal Party a genuine chance to reboot and be competitive at the next election. The only way it can work is if Turnbull is a willing participant.

Peter van Onselen is a professor of politics at the University of Western Australia.