Gladys Berejiklian, Michael Daley react to tight NSW election Newspoll

NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian says she remains focused on the election following the latest Newspoll result.

Gladys Berejiklian on a visit to Heathcote High School in Sydney’s south yesterday. Picture: AAP

NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian said she always knew the March 23 election “would be tight” but refused to comment further today on the result of a Newspoll which sees her Coalition government deadlocked with Labor two months out.

Sports Minister Stuart Ayres, who is the member for the marginal seat of Penrith, had an awkward moment today at the announcement of extra teachers by Ms Berejiklian, saying yesterday that if the people of NSW wanted more hospitals, schools and transport services; “If you want all those things, Gladys Berejiklian is your girl.”

Today, Ms Berejiklian refused to be drawn on the 50-50 poll result published in The Australian today, which points towards minority government or the narrowest of victories for the premier, who would lose her majority if six seats in the 93-seat Legislative Assembly chamber changed hands.

The result represented a 4.3 per cent swing against the government since the 2015 election.

“I’m obsessed with dealing with the issues that matter for the people of the state,” Ms Berejiklian said.

“We always knew it would be tight and my focus remains on the citizens of NSW. We’ve worked our guts out . . we’ve brought the state from last to first.”

“I think what’s important for me and my team is to stay focused on those issues that matter.”

Opposition Leader Michael Daley said winning the election would be “climbing Everest” but he said if people wanted to get rid of the NSW government it would have to vote 1 Labor, not for minor parties.

In doing so, he was addressing Labor’s relatively low primary vote result of 36 per cent (Ms Berejiklian had 39 per cent while minor parties made up 24 per cent)

“I said on day one, that I was climbing Everest,” Mr Daley said. “I have to win more seats than anyone I think since Neville Wran, get a bigger swing than anyone since Neville Wran.

“All I can do is get out, meet any people I can . . but there’s a dissatisfaction with this government; I feel it when I go all around NSW . . particularly in regional NSW.

“I say to the voters of NSW: if you don’t like this Liberal National government with all its waste and mismanagement and blowouts and stadiums and fishkills and you want to get rid of it, the only way to guarantee that the Liberals and Nationals are not re-elected is to vote for my team.”

He said if people did not vote for Labor, they “might find out the Liberals and Nationals are in by one or two seats”.

“If you want them gone, you have to put Labor number one on the ballot paper.”

The 50-50 Newspoll result is same as the previous poll in February and March last year, when Luke Foley was Labor leader, although the opposition has increased its primary vote two points since, from 34 per cent to 36 per cent.

The new poll, taken from last Friday to yesterday, also shows an improvement in the government’s fortunes from a Galaxy poll in early December, which had Michael Daley’s Labor ahead 52-48 after preferences.

Although Ms Berejiklian leads Mr Daley on the question of who is the better premier, this is the first Newspoll since she took over from Mike Baird in January 2017 to find more people dissatisfied with her performance than those who were satisfied.

Today’s result represents a 4.3 per cent swing against the Coalition since its victory at the 2015 election.

If uniform, such a result would lead to Ms Berejiklian ­losing her six-seat majority, as six Coalition seats — Coogee, Lismore, Tweed, Upper Hunter, Monaro and East Hills — are held on margins of 3.2 per cent or less.

Should only those seats be lost, the Premier would be expected to be able to govern with the help of independents Greg Piper and Alex Greenwich.

At present, in the 93-seat Legislative Assembly, the ­Coalition has 52 seats (36 held by Liberal MPs and 16 by Nationals), Labor has 34, there are three Greens, three independents and one Shooters, Fishers and Farmers MP.

 

Labor believes it would need to win nine or 10 seats to give it a hope of forming minority government with the support of the Greens and the Shooters — a ­result that would require a uniform 6.7 per cent swing on a two-party-preferred basis.

Labor would need to win 13 seats in order to win a majority, a result the poll suggests is out of reach. The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party fancies its chances in the Nationals-held seat of Barwon at the next election as do the Greens in Nationals-held Lismore, while the Nationals are attempting to win Ballina back from the Greens.

The Australian revealed in November that the Nationals were behind in internal polling in three seats — Tweed, Lismore and Upper Hunter — but believed they could retain Deputy Premier John Barilaro’s seat of Monaro.

The poll has the Coalition’s primary vote at 39 per cent — up one percentage point from last year — but down 6.6 points from the 2015 result.

Labor’s primary vote has risen to 36 per cent, up two points from both the 2015 result and last year’s result, when Mr Foley was Labor leader.

Mr Foley resigned in November over a sexual harassment ­scandal.

The Greens are steady at 10 per cent with other parties on 9 per cent.

Since Mark Latham became the leader of One Nation in NSW, the party’s vote has declined from 8 per cent last year to 6 per cent in the latest poll.

Ms Berejiklian leads Mr Daley as preferred premier with 44 per cent support, up one point from last year.

Mr Daley’s rating of 31 per cent is six points higher than Mr Foley’s rating last year.

The survey of 1011 voters found that 41 per cent were satisfied with Ms Berejiklian’s performance, down four points from last year, and 43 per cent were dissatisfied, up eight points.

It also found that 33 per cent were satisfied with Mr Daley’s performance, down four points from Mr Foley’s rating last year, with 41 per cent dissatisfied.

One-third of the Newspoll was conducted in the bush, an area Ms Berejiklian is most concerned about in terms of losing her majority.

The Coalition’s vote peaked in this term of government under Mr Baird in November-December 2015 with a two-party-preferred result of 56-44 but dived to 51-49 in August-September 2016, after Mr Baird banned the greyhound racing industry — a ban he subsequently reversed.

After Mr Baird resigned two years ago, Ms Berejiklian saw that slim lead evaporate in last year’s February-March poll.

Yesterday, Ms Berejiklian’s government lost a challenge against it in the High Court over its attempt to limit the amount unions could spend on advertising on behalf of Labor during the election campaign.

And an outbreak of Liberal Party disunity was shut down when Ms Berejiklian’s preferred candidate for North Shore, Felicity Wilson, won a court challenge lodged by the right-wing preselection candidate for the seat, Tim James.