Berejiklian’s back in the game but she must deal the trump cards

The Berejiklian government will be breathing a sigh of relief this morning over the fact it is seemingly “back in the game”.

Last year’s disastrous Wagga Wagga by-election result, the federal shenanigans and a Galaxy poll in December that had the NSW Liberal-Nationals behind 48-52 per cent had many in government staff ranks dusting off their CVs or considering their options.

Today’s Newspoll will calm the horses at government headquarters in Sydney’s Martin Place, but the most likely result on March 23 still appears a minority Coalition government.

The hope in government ranks will be that somehow it can sneak over the line and win a majority by one or two seats and not rely on independents Greg Piper, Alex Greenwich and Joe McGirr to form government.

So how does a government with a strong economy that is embarking on NSW’s biggest infrastructure program, building schools, hospitals and train lines, and that has been relatively stable find itself so close to a loss, eight years after one of the most scandal-ridden governments in the country’s recent history was banished from office?

They say a week in politics is a long time; eight years certainly is.

The first of three Liberal premiers, Barry O’Farrell came to power in 2011 promising to fix urban congestion and in 2019 it is worse than it ever was.

O’Farrell was too slow to move at the start of the two terms. Now some of the projects that will make a difference — the WestConnex Motorway and North Metro rail line — will open later this year instead of during election time.

Another key reason for a failure to stay ahead of Labor appears to be a lack of leadership from Premier Gladys Berejiklian and a lack of a clear narrative that has frustrated her colleagues. There’s a reason Berejiklian has not had a reshuffle in two years: she just does not want the drama.

A lack of a clear narrative means Labor’s issues such as the billions spent on new stadiums and a troublesome light rail project have come up in focus groups as government priorities when they are just side issues to the bigger transport projects.

Having said that, the Premier is known for being competent, decent and a person of integrity. Voters like her; they might just not necessarily vote for her.

In a way, her approach, in cricketing parlance, appears to mimic that of another GB — Geoffrey Boycott. It’s all blocking in the middle; not too many shots being played and not too much flair. She is pitching herself as the sort of “small target” her former mentor O’Farrell was.

Mike Baird went to the last election with a promise to sell the electricity poles and wires and pay for infrastructure, but there is no such bold plan from the NSW Premier this time. If Berejiklian does fall over the line, the great hope for the state will be she then feels she has the authority to lead with more confidence.

This contest is reminiscent of the 2001 West Australian election where Labor’s Geoff Gallop surprised Liberal Richard Court and won government two terms after the WA Inc scandal off the back of One Nation preferences. At the time, the federal government was on the nose because of the GST and petrol prices.

There are similar dangers for Berejiklian, with federal factors in play and independent parties with a protest vote perhaps preferencing the opposition and having the potential to create almost an “accidental result”.

Labor must shift the needle by 2 to 3 per cent in two months to be in position to form minority government. It’s a big ask.

The challenge for Michael Daley is to show he and his inexperienced shadow cabinet are capable of leading the state and they have moved on from the bad old Labor days.

Mind you, who knows. In 1995, everyone thought Liberal John Fahey was a shoo-in to beat Labor’s Bob Carr. Fahey had tackled a bloke who fired a starter’s pistol at Prince Charles and delivered the Sydney Olympics, yet he still lost.

Some veterans of Carr’s 1995 election win are in Daley’s office: senior staffers Kris Neill and Bruce Hawker.