Newspoll: Morrison heading north in the south

Victoria is leading a recovery for the Morrison government with popular support jumping four points in the first quarter of 2019.

Scott Morrison in Melbourne yesterday. Picture: AAP

Victoria is leading a recovery for the Morrison government with popular support jumping four points in the first quarter of this year to 40 per cent as the Greens and Labor lose ground in Bill Shorten’s home state.

But Labor remains dominant in every state with the national ­picture still grim for the Coalition.

In a sign that the negative effects of Malcolm Turnbull’s removal may have begun to wash through the suburban electorates, an ­exclusive quarterly Newspoll analysis conducted for The Australian shows the Coalition has recorded a three-point turnaround in the two-party-preferred vote in Victoria in the first quarter of this year.

This mirrors a rebound in the overall vote for the Coalition in the mainland capitals with a return to the highest point in the past year under Mr Turnbull’s leadership rising four points across the five largest capitals to 38 per cent compared with the final quarter of last year. It has not only recovered the ground lost in the aftermath of the August leadership spill, but is now two points higher than where the Coalition was at the same period last year.

The bounce, however, has not been enough to elevate the ­Coalition into a competitive position.

Commercial private polling, ­revealed to The Australian, had the Coalition showing a similar recovery in Victoria with a primary vote of 39 per cent.

The Newspoll analysis had Labor’s average primary vote in Victoria drop two points for this quarter to 42 per cent while the Greens recorded their lowest result — 8 per cent — in the past year.

GRAPHIC: Newspoll analysis

Liberal Party sources conceded that the general perception was that Victoria was bad for the ­Coalition but Mr Morrison had made a point of cementing himself there since the start of the year with a mini-campaign around a string of infrastructure announcements.

The Prime Minister has been to Victoria nine times in the past month alone, making Melbourne his most-visited city where population growth and urban congestion are a top-order issue.

The minor recoveries in other metropolitan zones reflect the ­results for the Coalition in the NSW election where the Berej­iklian government managed to hold on to virtually all the Liberal-held metropolitan seats.

However, just like the routing of the NSW Nationals at the weekend where the party lost most of western NSW, any gains reflected in the polls for the federal ­Coalition in the capitals continues to be outstripped by the virtual collapse in support in the regional centres, which is dragging down the overall vote.

The Coalition’s primary vote is still considerably suppressed in every other mainland state including Queensland where the swing against the LNP on the last election remains at more than 8 per cent. The picture remains grim in NSW, which is down almost six points on the July 2016 election result.

Despite significant personal support for Mr Morrison in the ­regions, the mix of right-wing ­independent parties including One Nation, the Shooters and Fishers and Clive Palmer’s party, are proving to be a significant ­anchor on the Coalition vote outside of the capitals. One Nation and other minor parties account for 18 per cent of the vote on a ­national level compared with 16.4 per cent at the election.

Labor’s primary vote in the bush is also at record highs at 39 per cent — almost a 10-point surge on the election result. However, this was not reflected in the NSW election with Labor performing poorly in the bush.

Senior Liberal sources claimed the Newspoll numbers, and the NSW result, suggested that preference deals would become the ­deciding factor in the federal election, which The Australian yesterday revealed, had firmed to be held on May 11.

The Newspoll quarterly analysis, which used a sample size of 6393 voters across the capitals and regional areas between January 24 and March 10, shows NSW was the worst state for the Coalition after South Australia with a two-party-preferred split of 54-46 per cent in favour of Labor in the nation’s largest state.

Victoria had emerged as the equal-strongest state for the ­Coalition with it and Queensland on 2PP splits of 53-47 in Labor’s favour. Mr Morrison is most popular in Queensland followed by Victoria and NSW.

Mr Shorten is strongest in Victoria and NSW.