When will Australians know if Donald Trump or Kamala Harris has won the US Election?

Votes in the US’s crucial swing states will start to come in from 11am AEDT, as the world waits to see whether Donald Trump will make a comeback or Kamala Harris will win. Here’s all you need to know ahead of polling day.

Votes in the US’s crucial swing states will start to come in from 11am AEDT, as the world waits to see whether Donald Trump will make a comeback or Kamala Harris will win.

Votes in the US election’s crucial swing states will start to come in from 11am AEDT, as the world waits to see whether Donald Trump will make an extraordinary comeback to the White House or Kamala Harris will make history as the first female president.

It may be the closest presidential race since the Second World War, with polls deadlocked and prediction models saying both Mr Trump and Ms Harris have an almost 50/50 chance of victory.

But it’s possible either the Republican former president or the Democratic vice-president could win an unexpected blowout victory, due to an error in polling (which favoured Trump in the past two elections) or a big swing among undecided voters at the last minute.

The Australian’s top team of reporters are on the ground in Washington DC and Palm Beach Florida for Election Night, having travelled throughout the country talking to voters who will make the final choice in this historic election. 

Your guide to the 2024 US election - quick links:

• Our-by-hour guide to US election day
• How this election will affect Australia 
• US election in pics 
• Polls: who is winning 
• Explainer: Trump v Harris 

Follow The Australian's live US election blog. 

When do US election results come out?

US election winners have usually become apparent pretty quickly over the past 40 years, but this is no ordinary election.

Polls close in the key swing states at the following times:

– Georgia: 11am AEDT

– North Carolina: 11:30am AEDT

– Michigan: 12pm (eastern half) and 1pm AEDT

– Pennsylvania: 12pm AEDT

– Wisconsin 1pm AEDT

– Arizona 1pm AEDT

– Nevada 2pm AEDT

If the polls are right and the US election counting system remains as cumbersome as it was in 2020, we may not know the ultimate victor in some key states for days.

US election analysts and the Harris campaign have said they expect the results in Georgia, North Carolina and Michigan to be clear relatively early on, but the other states could drag on well into the night or even the end of the week.

Who is leading the election?

Harris has a very small national lead based on the FiveThirtyEight average of polls, but Donald Trump has led in some key swing states like Arizona and Georgia.

On an average of polls, Pennsylvania is tied and Michigan and Wisconsin lean Harris very narrowly.

The US presidency is not decided by popular vote nationally, but an “electoral college” where each state has a set number of electors who then go to Washington and decide the winner based on who their state voted for.

With big states like New York and Pennsylvania locked in for Democrats usually, and Southern states usually backing Republicans, there are seven “battleground states” set to decide the election.

And if there is an unlikely but possible tie in the Electoral College, it will be up to Congress to figure out who will be the president and vice president. That could take till next January.

What will decide the battleground states?

Each state has different issues.

Michigan’s big Arab community is angry about the Biden-Harris administration’s position on the Israel Gaza War

While Arizona drifted away from Trump in 2020 after he repeatedly offended supporters of the late Republican senator and war hero John McCain.

The US Supreme Court’s 2022 decision to give regulation of abortion back to the states has enraged women and helped Democrats in elections since then. Women voters tend to be a bigger part of the electorate and could help Harris.

But Trump has been targeting young men who usually do not come out and vote but have been hurt badly by inflation. If he can get more young men to vote, that could help the Republicans.

Will the polls be right this time?

It’s unclear. 

If there is a polling error in the key states similar to 2020, when Joe Biden won but the polls over-estimated his support, then Trump will likely win all seven battleground states.

But if the polls are actually over-estimating Republican voters like they did in the 2022 congressional mid-term voters, then Harris would win six of seven of the key states.

It all depends on if the pollsters have made an error and if the votes are really as close as they appear in the polls.

Currently top prediction models have the race as a coin flip. Renowned US political analyst Nate Silver has the race at 50/50 probability, ABC America’s FiveThirtyEight gives Trump a tiny edge of 52 per cent probability and the respected SplitTicket model gives Harris a small 53 per cent chance.