Polls show a race to the wire as a divided America chooses their next leader
Donald Trump and Kamala Harris face a desperate and bitter knife-edge battle for the US presidency, with the former president declaring the election could be his movement’s ‘final moment’ and the Democrat claiming democracy was on the line.
Donald Trump and Kamala Harris face a desperate and bitter knife-edge battle for the US presidency as Americans cast their vote, with the former president declaring the election could be his movement’s “final moment” and the Democrat claiming democracy was on the line.
In a situation unprecedented since modern polling began, both candidates are deadlocked in the national vote on the eve of a presidential election at 48.5 percentage points each.
Authorities erected new security fencing around the White House and Ms Harris’s Washington home at the Naval Observatory ahead of the poll, in case of violent protests by voters disputing the result.
The defining images of the 2024 election
With just hours before polls open, both Mr Trump and Ms Harris made frenetic visits to multiple cities and states in an attempt to break the deadlock.
Ms Harris, 60, concentrated on the critical swing state of Pennsylvania, holding four rallies in one day across the large state, which is widely tipped to be the key to winning the election.
Mr Trump, 78, held a rally in Reading, Pennsylvania, as polls showed him holding a bare 0.3 point advantage in the state. The Republican nominee also crisscrossed the country, holding a rally in Raleigh, North Carolina, and his final rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan, just as he did ahead of the 2016 and 2020 elections.
Both candidates gave sharply different closing messages to the American people, with Ms Harris sending a positive message about generation change and democracy. “Are you ready to do this?” the Vice-President said in front of a “VOTE FOR FREEDOM” sign in President Joe Biden’s hometown of Scranton, Pennsylvania.
“We are fighting for democracy right now (and) here is my pledge to you as president. I pledge to seek common ground and commonsense solutions to the challenges you face. I am looking to make progress,” the Democrat nominee said.
In recent days Ms Harris, who has attacked Mr Trump relentlessly, has deliberately avoided using the former president’s name, referring to him only as “my opponent”.
Mr Trump used his rallies to declare to his supporters: “This will be our final moment.” His closing arguments attacked Ms Harris on border security, price rises and for being a “far-left Marxist”. “We are being conquered, can you believe that?” Mr Trump said of illegal immigration. “We will be a free and proud nation once again.”
In such a close race, the turnout of voters could decide the result, with both Ms Harris and Mr Trump repeatedly urging their supporters to get out and vote.
The final polls show that all seven swing states which will decide the election – Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina – are within the margin of error, meaning either Mr Trump or Ms Harris could win them.
According to the bellwether RealClearPolitics poll average Mr Trump is leading Ms Harris in Pennsylvania by a 0.3 of a point, in Nevada by 1, in North Carolina by 1.5, and in Georgia by 1.7, while Ms Harris is leading Mr Trump by 0.4 in Wisconsin and 0.6 in Michigan.
One of the last single polls to be released before election day was the NPR/PBS News/Marist College Survey, which showed Ms Harris with a four-point lead over Mr Trump (51-47) among likely voters nationally.
The final polls suggest that Ms Harris’s most likely path to victory is to win the so-called blue wall states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan which would give her the 270 electoral college votes needed for victory.
Mr Trump’s most likely path to victory is to win Pennsylvania and then several of Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina.
The Trump campaign is hoping that the polls will once again underestimate the Trump vote, as they did in 2016 and 2020.
The Harris campaign has been buoyed by a small late swing towards Ms Harris after several weeks where Mr Trump had steadily gained ground on Harris to take the lead in five of the seven swing states.
It has also been encouraged by a surprise poll this week by the usually accurate Ann Selzer/Des Moines Register poll, which found Ms Harris leading Mr Trump by three points in conservative Iowa, which is not considered to be a swing state.
The poll comes after one of the most bitter and dramatic election campaigns in a generation, with two attempted assassination attempts on Mr Trump and the replacement – mid-campaign – of Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee by Ms Harris.
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