Any negative notion Labor strategists might hold about Peter Dutton’s abilities might want to be now studiously reconsidered.
It is highly unusual that an opposition leader would be considered more experienced and decisive than a prime minister.
Given the advantage of incumbency upon which those attributes can be most skilfully established, for any prime minister to be deficient on this scale is remarkable.
Dutton now leads Anthony Albanese on three key measures that, depending on the times, would be what voters would normally seek most in a leader. Not only is Dutton considered more experienced, he is regarded as more decisive, stronger in leadership and in possession of a greater understanding of major issues.
Clearly, the Prime Minister has some serious challenges ahead in terms of public perceptions of his leadership style.
Not since Tony Abbott and Julia Gillard has there been such a stark comparison between voters’ perceptions of competing leaders and their strengths and weaknesses.
And the Coalition was massively in front then on a two-party-preferred vote.
That is not the case now. Labor remains in front but the leadership contest is tightening. And the assets Dutton is now more favourable in insist he is a serious opponent.
When Abbott clipped Gillard on these measures, Gillard was new to the job.
Bill Shorten rivalled Scott Morrison on at least one of these measures when Morrison came to the job in 2018. Albanese as opposition leader also pulled ahead of Morrison on having a grasp of the major issues.
But more than 18 months into his premiership, for Albanese to be behind on these critical attributes against Dutton is odd.
If this poll had been taken this time last year, it would likely have produced different results.
Albanese, presumably, would have led on most measures. Nevertheless, this is where voters have landed now in their consideration of the contest.
Presumably, the defeat of the voice referendum still feeds heavily into these numbers, with the perception of a leader and a government having been distracted from the issues voters feel most important to them.
With Albanese’s approval ratings now in negative territory, remedial action would appear to be necessary.
The alternative view is that while Liberal leader’s reputation as a hard man of politics is clearly serving him well in important respects during a time of anxiety, it comes with a trade-off.
Dutton is the least liked leader since Newspoll began testing leadership attributes with voters in September 2008.
He is also considered the least caring and trustworthy. Although on this measure, Albanese isn’t far ahead.
The conclusion is that these insights now establish 2024 as one of the most captivating contests between two starkly different leaders: one more likeable and caring; the other decisive and strong.
Clearly, the times are going to suit one or the other by the next election. And it would be crystal ball-gazing to assume what that might be.
This is now the great gamble between two competing strategies and two vastly competing personalities.
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