Newspoll: Anthony Albanese a drag on Labor’s recovery

The Albanese government has ended the year by reasserting Labor’s electoral lead over the Coalition, but voters remain unimpressed by the Prime Minister’s performance.

Labor’s primary vote has lifted two points to 33 per cent in the past three weeks following resolution of the immigration detainee disaster, according to the latest Newspoll. Picture: NCA NewsWire/ Sam Ruttyn

The Albanese government has ended the year by reasserting Labor’s electoral lead over the Coalition amid a modest rebound in support but will head into 2024 with voters unimpressed by Anthony Albanese’s performance as Prime Minister.

An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows Labor’s primary vote lifting two points to 33 per cent in the past three weeks following resolution of the immigration detainee disaster, which saw its stocks fall last month to their lowest levels since the election.

The Coalition’s primary vote fell two points to 36 per cent. This has resulted in a four-point turnaround in the two-party-preferred vote from 50-50 in mid-November to have Labor leading again, 52-48.

The final Newspoll of the year reflects an almost identical result to the May 2022 election, which Labor won on a primary vote of 32.6 per cent, against the Coalition’s 35.7 and a two-party-preferred split of 52.1 to 47.9 per cent.

Labor’s primary vote, however, remains six points down compared to this time last year. The Coalition’s position is five points up on its lowest point in the term, recorded in September 2022.

With cost-of-living pressures still the primary concern for most voters, Labor may have been assisted in the latest poll by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision two weeks ago to resist another interest rate rise, with forecasts now suggesting the next move by the central bank could be to cut rates in the second half of next year.

The poll also follows the release last week of Jim Chalmers’ mid-year budget update, the Midyear Economic and Fiscal Outlook, which showed an improvement in the budget position and a prediction that inflation pressures would ease by the middle of 2024.

But voters remain indifferent to Mr Albanese’s leadership, with the Prime Minister ending the year in negative territory and with more voters dissatisfied with his performance than they are with Liberal leader Peter Dutton.

Mr Albanese’s approval ratings rose two points to 42 per cent in the latest poll. This is equal to the second-worst result for the Prime Minister.

Dissatisfaction with his performance dropped three points to 50 per cent, leaving Mr Albanese with a net negative approval rating of minus eight.

Mr Dutton also enjoyed a rise in approval of two points to 39 per cent. This is the strongest number for Mr Dutton this term, with his disapproval rating falling to 48 per cent, producing a net negative result of minus 11.

The head-to-head contest between the two leaders remained unchanged with a narrow gap of just 11 points between them. On who voters believed would make the better prime minister, Mr Albanese leads Mr Dutton by 46 per cent to 35 per cent.

Mr Albanese was on annual leave for at least a week of the three-week polling period.

Labor MPs might be relieved at the slight improvement in the polls, with many bracing for a worse result considering the political crises the government has been battling for the past month.

But the two-point rise in its primary vote reflects a recovery of only half the four-point slide the Labor Party suffered in the previous poll.

The last Newspoll conducted in November showed Labor’s primary vote nosediving four points to 31 per cent amid the height of the political chaos sparked by the High Court’s decision on indefinite detention of immigration detainees.

Since then, the government passed a series of laws in response, including preventative detention measures to ensure the worst criminal offenders would not be re-released into the community.

Pauline Hanson’s One Nation rose a point to 7 per cent, equal to its highest level of support since the election in May 2022.

The Greens’ primary vote of 13 per cent remains unchanged and slightly ahead of its election result of 12.2 per cent.

Support for other minor parties and independents, which includes the teal independents, fell a point to 11 per cent.

The last Newspoll of 2023 was conducted between December 11 and December 15, with 1219 voters surveyed across Australia.