Newspoll shows Labor remains in an election-winning position despite burning through political capital

The final Newspoll of the year suggests that Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton will be facing off at the next election. Picture: NCA Newswire / Nicki Connolly

Political recovery might be too strong a description but considering where the government was a month ago, Labor can’t be unhappy about where it has landed in the final Newspoll of the year.

More than halfway through its first term, it is in no worse a position than that which delivered it an election victory in May 2022.

Things could be worse. Much worse. The optics of dysfunction and incompetence have symbolised the recent political landscape.

Yet it is cost of living that is driving the electoral mood. Sentiment is at record lows.

Based on that, the government generally should be in a far graver position than it now finds itself in.

It’s reasonable to conclude that the central bank’s decision to halt rate hikes two weeks ago has contributed to a corresponding pause in voter hostility towards the government. It is clearly not yet feeling the full brunt of economic pessimism.

Anthony Albanese’s government generally should be in a far graver position than it now finds itself in. Picture: NCA NewsWire/ Sam Ruttyn

Had the decision gone the other way, the analysis might not have been as kind.

That said, the government ends 2023 having evaporated its significant post-election advantage over the Coalition.

Its primary vote has fallen six points since this time last year.

Its two-party-preferred lead has been eroded from 55-45 to 52-48.

Anthony Albanese has also more than burnt through his political capital, most of that because of the voice referendum.

Yet Labor remains in an ­election-winning position.

This is remarkable considering the post-referendum period has been plagued with negative events for the government and multiple failures of political management.

The Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese and Leader of the Opposition Peter Dutton during Question Time at Parliament House in Canberra. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Martin Ollman

Again, this hasn’t been enough for a sustained reversal of fortunes for the Coalition.

This result says as much about the task ahead for Peter Dutton.

Tactical political victories along the way won’t be enough to get the opposition into a winnable position in another 18 months.

While the Liberal leader has successfully capitalised on Labor’s failures as they have arisen, amid the mild disillusionment with the Prime Minister’s performance, he has yet to advance the Coalition’s own case for re-election. Its primary vote remains where it was at the election – dismally low.

Yet the Opposition Leader won’t be entirely unhappy with the poll result, either.

There is no question that the government has been demonstrably weakened.

Dutton’s own personal numbers have improved as Albanese’s have deteriorated. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Martin Ollman

And Dutton’s own personal numbers have improved as Albanese’s have deteriorated.

Albanese at this time last year enjoyed a net positive rating of plus 33. It is now minus eight.

Dutton has been making incremental gains since then and is now only 11 points behind Albanese as the preferred prime minister, on a measure that generally favours the incumbent.

For an opposition leader trying to lead a defeated party out of the wilderness, the primary task is to keep one’s job.

Dutton is doing well enough to ensure that he will be taking the Coalition to next election.

And while behind, the ­Coalition is now close enough if they are good enough.