Queensland election: Devastation for Labor in regions, but Brisbane safe from Greens

Labor is at risk of devastation in regional Queensland, but Steven Miles’ party is hopeful it has successfully sandbagged its Brisbane seats to protect from an incursion by the Greens.

LNP leader David Crisafulli with LNP Redcliffe candidate Kerri-Anne Dooley on Friday, the day before the election. Picture: Liam Kidston

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Labor is at risk of devastation in regional Queensland, but hopes it has successfully sandbagged its Brisbane seats to protect from an incursion by the Greens.

The Weekend Australian has spoken to insiders and strategists from across the political spectrum about which electorates in the 93-seat parliament are most at threat of changing hands on Saturday night.

Labor’s three Townsville seats have been written off by the ALP, but doubt remains about whether the Liberal National Party or Katter’s Australian Party will pick up Mundingburra (3.93 per cent) and Thuringowa (3.25 per cent) in the northern city.

In far north Queensland, Labor’s Barron River (3.06 per cent) is likely lost to the LNP, but Tourism Minister Michael Healy is expected to hold Cairns (5.59 per cent). Cook (Labor, 6.26 per cent) is a huge seat that takes in Cape York and Torres Strait communities and is difficult to predict, while Mulgrave (12.24 per cent, where Labor’s Curtis Pitt is retiring) is too close to call.

The central Queensland seat of Gladstone (Labor’s second-safest on 23.49 per cent) is safe, but Keppel (Labor 5.63 per cent) is expected to be lost to the LNP, edging out Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Party candidate James Ashby.

Even Rockhampton (8.62 per cent) and Mackay (6.72 per cent), which have been held by Labor for about a century, are at risk of falling to the LNP, as sitting MPs retire and a popular local independent, former Rockhampton Labor mayor Margaret Strelow, splits the vote in that electorate.

In the Wide Bay, only Maryborough (11.89 per cent) is likely to be held, while Bundaberg (won by Labor’s Tom Smith by just nine votes in 2020) and Hervey Bay (2.02 per cent) are expected to be won by the LNP.

The latter two were taken by Labor at the last election on the back of the Covid pandemic and the so-called Palaszczuk’s pensioners movement. The three other 2020 gains – also seats with older populations – are also expected to swing back to the LNP: the Sunshine Coast’s Nicklin (0.14 per cent), Caloundra (2.51 per cent) and Bribie Island’s Pumicestone (5.27 per cent).

On Brisbane’s bayside, the Labor seats of Redlands (3.9 per cent) and Redcliffe (6.11 per cent) are expected to fall.

While the Greens have campaigned hard in four Brisbane seats – McConnel (11.06 per cent), Cooper (10.49 per cent), Greenslopes (13.2 per cent) and Miller (13.82 per cent) – Labor strategists hope the minor party won’t add any electorates to its two sitting MPs. Greens hardheads believe Cooper is their best chance.

The ALP vote is holding up better than expected in Brisbane, and Transport Minister Bart Mellish (Aspley, 5.16 per cent) and Energy Minister Mick de Brenni (Springwood, 8.3 per cent) are thought likely to win.

In the outer suburbs, Corrective Services Minister Nikki Boyd is under threat in Pine Rivers (6.7 per cent), and backbenchers Corinne McMillan (Mansfield, 6.8 per cent) and Melissa McMahon (Macalister, 9.54 per cent) are fighting to hold on.

On the Gold Coast, Labor’s sole seat, Housing Minister Meaghan Scanlon’s Gaven (7.75 per cent), is on a knife-edge but Labor insiders are hopeful she’ll hold off the LNP’s Bianca Stone. Ipswich West may swing from the LNP back to Labor, after the LNP won it at a March by-election.