October rout feared by Queensland Labor MPs after shock by-election loss

Queensland Labor MPs are bracing for an election wipe-out and are urging Steven Miles to do more to make a ‘big, bold’ break from the Palaszczuk era.

Queensland Premier Steven Miles on Sunday. Picture: Lyndon Mechielsen

Queensland Labor MPs are bracing for an October election wipe-out and are urging Steven Miles to do more on youth crime and cost-of-living relief to make a “big, bold” break from the Palaszczuk era, after the shock loss of a heartland seat in weekend by-elections.

Mr Miles’s backroom-driven elevation as Queensland Premier in December has failed to reverse Labor’s plummeting popularity, with the ALP losing Ipswich West for only the fourth time in the seat’s 64-year history after a 17 per cent swing, and suffering a 21 per cent swing in former premier ­Annastacia Palaszczuk’s electorate of Inala. At the October 26 general election, the Liberal ­National Party needs a statewide swing of about 6 per cent to deliver it 12 seats and majority government after ­nearly a decade in the political wilderness.

In the wake of Mr Miles’s first electoral test since he replaced Ms Palaszczuk in December, he conceded the weekend results were “very bad” and “even worse” than he was predicting.

He promised to do more on crime and “hip pocket” issues, again foreshadowing a big-spending pre-election budget in June focused on cost-of-living relief for voters.

“It’s an admission we need to do better, and it’s an acknowledgment that’s what we’ve started to do,” the Premier said. “We are much more focused now on those immediate concerns.”

While LNP leader David Crisafulli was careful to publicly play down his optimism after the by-election rout, he said voters had shown they did not trust the government to fix the state’s ­issues.

“There is a cost-of-living crisis in Queensland, there’s a youth crime crisis in Queensland, people are struggling to keep a roof over their heads in the housing crisis, and when it comes to health, our frontline staff are buckling under pressure,” Mr Crisafulli said.

“The overwhelming message is people don’t trust this government to fix those (problems).”

Leader of the Opposition David Crisafulli in Ipswich on Sunday morning. Picture Lachie Millard

Mr Miles replaced Ms Palaszczuk after a backroom deal between Labor’s factions and union leaders in December, shutting out Health Minister and leadership rival Shannon Fentiman’s chances of testing her support in caucus. Ms Palaszczuk quit after nearly nine years in the job, after union powerbroker and Mr Miles’s mentor, Gary Bullock, and party president John Battams told her to consider her future. At the time, her personal popularity and that of the government was in free-fall.

Several Labor MPs and party sources told The Australian the mood in the government was grim and deflated, and there were serious concerns about whether anything could be done to save the October election.

“It’s possible (to turn things around) but it will be really, really difficult,” one government MP said, adding the government needed a “big, bold” policy agenda to distinguish itself from Ms Palaszczuk’s legacy.

“Voters are really hurting and they are happy to give someone else a go,” the MP said.

Others said the “it’s time” factor of a nine-year-old government asking voters for a fourth term in power, coupled with intractable issues of community safety and unaffordable housing, was a big problem for the government.

The results have extinguished hopes that Mr Miles’s elevation to the top job would deliver a bounce in the polls and a honeymoon ­period with voters.

There was also a warning for Labor in the statewide local government elections, with Townsville Mayor Jenny Hill – a Labor member and close friend of Ms Palaszczuk – set to be booted out of office by former One Nation candidate Troy Thompson.

The north Queensland city is considered to be the epicentre of the state’s youth crime crisis, and Labor’s three state seats in Townsville hang in the balance.

In Australia’s largest local government, Brisbane City Council, Labor mayoral candidate Tracey Price suffered a 5 per cent swing against her, with the party’s primary vote slumping to its lowest level since 2012.

Queensland Greens Wendy Aghdam, Michaela Sargent, Seal Chong Wah, Trina Massey, Michael Berkman, Quintessa Denniz and Kath Angus outside Brisbane City Hall in King George Square after the Brisbane City Council elections. Picture: Richard Walker

It is an ominous sign that the Labor brand is on the nose in Fortress Brisbane, which has been the party’s stronghold in state politics.

In Inala, a working-class and multicultural electorate on the southwest outskirts of Brisbane, Ms Palaszczuk’s margin of 28.2 per cent was slashed by 21 per cent, but Labor staffer-turned-candidate Margie Nightingale ultimately won.

In Ipswich West, west of Brisbane, Labor’s seemingly safe margin of 14.3 per cent was wiped out by a swing of 17 per cent to LNP candidate Darren Zanow, a local businessman and president of the Ipswich Show Society.

One Labor MP criticised former Ipswich West Labor MP Jim Madden, who abruptly quit parliament in late January, giving candidate Wendy Bourne very little time to campaign on the ground.

“It was a perfect storm,” the MP said. “Jim leaving the way he did didn’t leave the candidate time, the LNP had a high-profile person, and there was no Greens candidate for preferences.”

Youth crime was a driving factor in the Ipswich West defeat, after a grandmother was stabbed to death in front of her six-year-old granddaughter in a shopping centre carpark, allegedly by a 16-year-old on bail.

While Mr Miles admitted the government needed to do more on community safety, he also accused a “cocky” Mr Crisafulli of “sensationalising and politicising crime for their own political ­benefit”.

“I don’t know whether David’s ego could get any bigger, but presumably these by-election results will make him happy,” the Premier said on Sunday.