Steven Miles and Labor facing October defeat after horror weekend of elections
Queenslanders have their baseball bats out for Steven Miles and his Labor government.
The twin by-elections in the Labor heartland seats of Ipswich West and Inala have delivered a brutal reality check for members of the near-decade-old government: time’s up.
Inala, where Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk exited in December, was Labor’s safest seat, held by Palaszczuk with a seemingly insurmountable margin of 28.2 per cent.
Counting continues, and while Labor’s Margie Nightingale – a Labor government staffer – will hold the seat – the margin has been slashed by 21 per cent.
In Ipswich West, left vacant by the departure of Labor MP Jim Madden of ‘Call Me Sir’ infamy, the result was even worse. Madden had a buffer of 14.3 per cent, which should have been enough to see long-time Palaszczuk offsider Wendy Bourne hold on.
No such luck. Despite a full-throated campaign from Labor, where ALP HQ threw everything it had at Ipswich West, the seat will fall to the LNP, after a predicted two-party preferred swing of over 17 per cent.
By-elections often swing hard against an incumbent government, particularly a long-term administration.
But this weekend is a wake-up call to Miles and the more naive members of his caucus and support base. Friday’s Newspoll, published in The Australian, was not an aberration.
It predicted a swing of 7.2 per cent against Labor on a two-party preferred basis, which if replicated statewide, would cost Labor 18 seats at the October 26 general election.
With Ipswich West, David Crisafulli’s LNP needs to win a net 12 electorates to secure a majority in the unicameral 93-seat state parliament.
Asking voters for a fourth term is a mammoth undertaking for any government, let alone one saddled with the intractable problems of youth crime, the rising cost of living, lack of affordable housing, and an overwhelmed hospital and health system.
Results in some local government races across the state will also be worrying Labor.
In Townsville, long-time mayor Jenny Hill – a Labor member but an unaligned mayor – looks set to be beaten after 12 years in power, by Troy Thompson, who had a short stint as the One Nation candidate for the state seat of Thuringowa.
Townsville is the epicentre of Queensland’s youth crime woes, and Labor’s three state seats in the north Queensland city hang in the balance.
The LNP has a long and storeyed history of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, usually due to MP complacency or incompetency at party headquarters. And Labor’s campaign machine – backed by the cashed-up union movement – cannot be underestimated.
But on the weekend’s results, unless Miles and his comrades conjure a miracle, Queensland Labor looks set to be pounded at the ballot box come October.